The king of privacy in the crypto world has finally unlocked DeFi gameplay, but behind the celebration, the MACD death cross has quietly emerged.
The Zcash ecosystem has achieved a significant breakthrough! This morning, Rhea Finance officially announced the launch of ZcashFi on platform X, allowing ZEC holders to natively stake ZEC for a maximum annual return of 2%, and participate in multi-chain lending.
This message spread through the crypto community like lightning, causing ZEC prices to fluctuate. However, as a seasoned analyst tracking privacy coins, I immediately checked the technical indicators and indeed found that the MACD on the hourly chart has shown a death cross trend, revealing the potential risk of a 'false rise and true correction.'
ZcashFi: Not just a 'lay flat' earning tool.
The launch of ZcashFi is indeed a milestone. It has achieved the native staking of ZEC for the first time, supports multi-chain lending of stablecoins and other assets, and allows earning across chains without the need for bridging. This is undoubtedly a long-awaited blessing for long-time believers in 'privacy is power' ZEC holders.
But we must see the essence of this good news. The Zcash ecosystem has undergone a qualitative leap since 2024:
The launch of the Zashi wallet has led to an exponential increase in the number of shielded transactions.
Cross-chain interoperability achieved through Near Intents has driven approximately $100 million in capital inflows within 8 weeks.
The third halving will take place in November 2025, with the block reward decreasing from 3.125 ZEC to 1.5625 ZEC.
These fundamentals support Zcash's long-term value, but short-term market trends are often closely tied to technicals.
Technical truth: hidden risk signals.
Despite the favorable news, I must point out the current risk points:
The MACD death cross is a clear short-term bearish signal. When the DIF line crosses downwards through the DEA line, it indicates weakened upward momentum, and the market may enter an adjustment period. Currently, ZEC's key resistance levels are at 462 (intraday resistance) and 477 (pullback resistance), while support levels are at 449 (the dividing line between bulls and bears) and 433 (intraday support).
What worries me is that although buying volume is greater than selling volume, the commission ratio is only +0.00, indicating that the main funds are actually waiting, and there is insufficient momentum for a rise. In this case, blindly chasing long positions is undoubtedly dancing with risk.
Operational strategy: My personal advice.
Based on my in-depth research on the privacy coin market and Zcash fundamentals, combined with current technical analysis, I give the following suggestions:
Short-term traders should remain cautious. It may be considered to short at highs in the 462-477 range, with a stop-loss set above 480. The target looks towards the support range of 449-433. If it breaks below 433, the next target will be around 417.
Long-term investors need not panic. The fundamentals of Zcash remain strong, and the value of privacy coins is irreplaceable in the current regulatory environment. However, the timing of entry is crucial; waiting for a pullback to the 433-417 range before gradually positioning is a wiser choice.
I want to emphasize: Zcash's long-term narrative is complete and persuasive. The view proposed by Naval Ravikant that 'Zcash is the insurance for Bitcoin' has gained wide recognition. However, no matter how good a project is, its price will not rise straight up; periodic adjustments are an inevitable manifestation of a healthy market.
Outlook: After the storm comes the rainbow.
Zcash is undergoing a transformation from a pure privacy coin to a privacy financial infrastructure. With the advancement of the Tachyon project, the transaction speed and processing capacity of Zcash will achieve a qualitative leap. Moreover, the fixed supply model similar to Bitcoin (with a cap of 21 million coins) gives it a natural anti-inflation property.
I have always believed that in the world of digital currencies, privacy is not an option but a necessity. With governments around the world increasing surveillance, Zcash's value proposition will become even more prominent.
But back to the present, the warning signals from the technical perspective cannot be ignored. Today's ZEC trend is likely to show a pattern of 'rising → falling → oscillating', and the probability of a direct surge breaking 477 is low.
Conclusion: Rationally view market fluctuations.
As old friends who follow my analysis know, I always adhere to the investment philosophy that 'the news is the wind, and the technicals are the rudder.' The launch of ZcashFi is undoubtedly a strong tailwind, but the rudder has begun to turn, and we need to adjust our strategy in a timely manner.
The cryptocurrency market is never short of opportunities, only short of patience. Maintaining rationality amidst uncertainty is the way to survive in the long run.
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