Friends, I am Hongcai. CZ holds 2 million dollars of ASTER, with a cost of 0.913, the current price is 0.73, and the floating loss exceeds 20%! But on the other hand, there is a mysterious K operating in reverse, withdrawing 700,000 US dollars to buy the dip. This signal of contrasting situations, who should we trust? My core judgment is: in the short term, we face the pressure of a correction, but coins deeply trapped by big players often hide subsequent self-rescue trends. Right now, don't rush in.
Technical aspect
Let's speak with the chart. On the four-hour chart, the MACD shows a golden cross above zero, seemingly indicating strong bullish momentum. However, the price is just below the key level of 0.736, and not far above is the strong resistance area at 0.88.
The big shot being stuck this deep means that there is a huge amount of trapped positions in this area. Is a direct V-shaped reversal possible? It's as hard as climbing to the sky. Here’s a key point: historically, when big players are deeply trapped, it often requires extreme pressure to flush out all the weak hands. Where does this action usually occur?
So how do we explain the K bottoming? This indicates that some smart money believes the current price has short-term value, and they are betting on a rebound from an oversold condition. But this is a different matter from CZ; a rebound does not equal a reversal.
So how should we play this?
Short-term: You can pay attention to the performance when the price tests the 0.88 resistance level. If there is a lack of strength to break through and a divergence between volume and price occurs, you can test short positions with a very small size.
Medium to long-term: I strongly recommend waiting for a safer entry point. The ideal scenario is for the price to pull back sufficiently to test the strong support range of 0.55-0.643. If signs of stabilization appear there and the market's FUD sentiment regarding CZ peaks, it might be an excellent opportunity to gradually build a bottom position, betting on future self-rescue or value return.
My viewpoint
The current ASTER is a fierce confrontation between technical rebound demand and the psychological pressure of whales being trapped. I judge that the market needs a deep pullback to test the true market bottom and flush out the last panic positions. Blindly chasing highs may very well become the active Good Samaritan for the big shots.
If you feel anxious watching the big shot lose money and don't know whether to cut losses or bottom fish, this feeling is right. Because emotions are the easiest way to make mistakes. In my chat room, I will not only track the subtle changes in the holdings of such giant whales on-chain but also teach you how to use market panic to find opportunities for mispriced assets and avoid emotional trading.
Do you want to know the key position where the extreme pressure is most likely to reach? And how to determine if and when CZ will take action? Follow Hongcai and join my chat room. In this information-asymmetric market, you need a partner who can help you see through the fog. I'm here, waiting for you to understand the next act of this grand play together.#加密市场观察 $ASTER
