As gold soars, how will Bitcoin perform?
When traditional reports meet the cryptocurrency market, the wealth code is quietly changing.
Just yesterday, Goldman Sachs released its 2026 Commodity Outlook report, predicting that gold prices will rise by 14% to $4,900 per ounce, while crude oil prices will fall to $56 per barrel.
This report is like a deep-water bomb, causing huge waves in the traditional financial market. But as a long-term observer of the cryptocurrency market, I see not only the opportunity in gold but also the imminent explosive opportunity for Bitcoin.
The logic behind the rise in gold is simple: central banks are frantically buying. Goldman Sachs expects that the momentum of central bank purchases of gold will remain strong in 2026, with an average monthly purchase of 70 tons, which is four times higher than the average monthly value before 2022.
01 The macroeconomic trends behind the Goldman Sachs report
The Goldman Sachs report is not an isolated analysis, but an important signal of the macroeconomic shift. The report indicates that structurally strong central bank demand and the cyclical support from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will drive up gold prices.
More importantly, Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to further decline in 2026. The annual average price of Brent crude may drop to $56 per barrel, while WTI crude may fall to $52.
This combination of rising gold and falling oil tells us an important message: funds are shifting from traditional energy to safe-haven assets.
As a safe-haven asset of the digital age, Bitcoin will naturally not miss this feast. Although the Goldman Sachs report does not directly mention cryptocurrencies, the logical chain is clear: increasing global economic uncertainty, continued weakening of the dollar's credit, and heightened geopolitical risks.
These factors initially drove gold prices up, but with the entry of the younger generation of investors, Bitcoin will become their preferred safe-haven tool.
02 The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional safe-haven assets is increasing
Observing the recent market performance, I noticed an interesting phenomenon: Bitcoin's response to geopolitical events is becoming increasingly mature.
Looking back at the escalation of the Middle East conflict in June 2025, Bitcoin briefly fell below $103,000 but quickly stabilized. Compared to the dramatic fluctuations during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, Bitcoin has shown greater resilience.
BlackRock's report for 2024 has already indicated that Bitcoin has outperformed the S&P 500 and gold during the past few geopolitical shocks. This trend has become more evident in 2025.
On-chain data also supports this judgment. During the geopolitical crisis in June, the 100-1000 BTC wallet addresses significantly increased their holdings, marking the first concentrated accumulation signal in three months. Smart money is using market panic to accumulate chips.
This is remarkably similar to the trends in the gold market. Goldman Sachs points out that as investors begin to compete with central banks for limited gold reserves, gold prices will receive additional support. In the Bitcoin market, we also see a trend of institutional investors and individual investors accumulating together.
03 The wealth code revealed by on-chain data
Putting aside the macro perspective, let's look at the real data on the blockchain, and you'll find more interesting signals:
The balance of Bitcoin on exchanges continues to decline, now reaching a five-year low. What does this mean? Supply is shifting from a liquid state to a frozen state. When scarcity meets sustained demand, price increases are almost inevitable.
The selling pressure from miners has eased. Compared to June, the amount of Bitcoin sold by miners has dropped to below $2 billion, significantly alleviating short-term supply pressure. Miners, as natural sellers in the market, often indicate the formation of a market bottom with their reduction actions.
The accumulation by whales is evident. During the price decline, large Bitcoin addresses have continuously increased their holdings, and this accumulation pattern is strikingly similar to that before the bull market started in early 2023.
In the derivatives market, despite recent increased volatility, the perpetual contract funding rates remain at healthy levels, with no signs of excessive leverage. This indicates that the current rise is driven by spot demand rather than leveraged bubbles, making the foundation more solid.
04 2026 Crypto Market Outlook: My Personal Predictions
Based on the Goldman Sachs report and on-chain data, I make the following predictions for the crypto market in 2026:
Bitcoin will break through the $150,000 mark. As gold rises, Bitcoin's narrative as 'digital gold' will again become a focal point. Institutional investors need to allocate part of their portfolios to assets similar to gold but with greater growth potential; Bitcoin is a natural choice.
The regulatory environment will become clearer. The support from the Trump administration's policies has already begun to show results, including proposals to establish a Bitcoin Presidential Advisory Committee and to promote the binding of Bitcoin to the national economy. These initiatives will clear obstacles for institutional funds to enter the market.
Mainstream altcoins like Ethereum will follow suit and rise, but performance will be differentiated. Projects with practical applications and cash flow capabilities will stand out, while those relying purely on concept speculation will be eliminated from the market.
The DeFi space will usher in a new wave of innovation. As traditional funds seek entry into the crypto market, the demand for decentralized financial infrastructure will see significant growth.
Looking back, Goldman Sachs' prediction of gold rising to $4,900 is based on their accurate grasp of macro trends. However, as crypto investors, we have reason to hold greater confidence in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin not only possesses the safe-haven attributes of gold, but also has unmatched growth potential and technological foundations that gold cannot compare to. While traditional investors are still discussing how to allocate gold, smart money has quietly laid out Bitcoin.
The market always rewards those who can see far and dare to lay out in advance. This Goldman Sachs report may be a clear signal for the next wealth cycle.
Do you think Bitcoin will outperform gold in 2026? Share your thoughts in the comments and hit follow.
