Is there a possibility of interest rate cuts in January? Will Bitcoin rebound because of this?
According to the current interest rate market, the possibility of a rate cut in January is indeed gradually increasing, and it may even reach 40% next week.
In fact, this situation occurred before the rate cut in December; initially, the interest rate market was pricing in more than a 70% probability of no rate cut, but as the meeting approached, the labor market gradually weakened, and ultimately, Powell yielded and began to cut rates.
From a pragmatic point of view, although the long-term outlook is bearish, we cannot rule out the possibility of further rate cuts in January, because the unemployment rate announced on Tuesday night has already exceeded market expectations, continuing to rise to 4.6%, setting a four-year high, and the trend is still on the rise.
Then last night's inflation data also unexpectedly weakened, recording only 2.7%, significantly lower than the market's expectation of 3%. It can be said that as long as the employment and inflation data in January remain weak, the likelihood of a rate cut is indeed quite high. $BTC
