The moving averages are converging, and both volume and price are rising; the market is just one step away.
As a seasoned crypto analyst, I must remind everyone: every 'sudden change in market sentiment' is not coincidental. Yesterday opened low and rose high, today opened high and fluctuated upward, and the selling pressure at the close led to a narrowing of gains—this type of trend is definitely not simple.
The consecutive three days of engulfing bullish candlesticks this week have left those skeptics dumbfounded. In my view, the market next Monday is going to be quite explosive, so please prepare mentally for the opening.
I know saying this will invite a lot of skepticism, but my familiar friends know me well—I never play the hindsight game. When the whole network was promoting a rebound after a high open and subsequent drop on Monday, I was the only one to firmly point out that Tuesday would continue to decline; when the market closed on a pessimistic note on Tuesday, I was again the first to call for stabilization on Wednesday. The result? The market surged for three consecutive days, and I believe my loyal friends have reaped steady happiness.
The technical indicators have already sent clear signals.
The current market has broken through the pressure levels of the 10-day and 5-day moving averages, leaving only the 60-day and 30-day moving averages above. All moving averages are beginning to show a converging trend, which is a typical ascending trend pattern. Even if a pullback occurs later, it will only be a technical retracement.
Even more encouraging is that trading volume is continuously expanding; this kind of trend with rising volume and price is the healthiest technical signal. With the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and the expiration of stock index futures, incremental capital is rushing in.
Dual support from fundamentals and liquidity
Recently, the Central Economic Work Conference clarified that 'maintaining domestic demand as the main driver and building a strong domestic market' is the top priority for next year's economic work, which significantly boosts market expectations and confidence.
At the same time, expectations for a Fed rate cut in December are rising, the US dollar index has reached a temporary peak, and the external liquidity environment has become more favorable. Expectations for the appreciation of the RMB are attracting foreign capital back, which will further strengthen the overall market style.
Data shows that the trading amount of northbound funds has notably rebounded recently, and activity has significantly increased. The margin balance has also rebounded to over 250 billion yuan, and market risk appetite is recovering.
Opportunities in sector rotation
Based on my analysis, the technology growth sector may take the lead next Monday. Themes like AI computing power and commercial aerospace have been active recently, with capital involvement exceeding expectations.
Meanwhile, the brokerage sector, as a barometer of market trends, directly benefits from the increased trading volume. The consumer sector may benefit from the year-end peak season and policy expectations, ushering in temporary opportunities.
It's an opportune time for year-end market layout. Historical experience shows that both the opening years of the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans had good performance in the A-share market, and this pattern is expected to continue in 2026.
Risk warnings and response strategies
Of course, I would also like to remind everyone that the valuations of assets such as US stocks, A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, Chinese bonds, and gold are currently at high levels. Market sentiment at the end of the year may be primarily cautious, making it more sensitive to negative information.
However, the important thing is that any pullback is an opportunity to get on board. In a fluctuating market, the emergence of trend opportunities requires further clarity in fundamentals and liquidity; we need to be patient and prepare for next year's market.
My suggestion is: do not chase highs or sell lows, and avoid raising costs. You can set targets based on the support levels of different indices and enter the market in batches.
Conclusion
Friends, if you think my analysis makes sense, feel free to give a thumbs up and follow me, as this is also support for my long-term analysis. I believe that friends who respect the efforts of others will definitely be blessed with good fortune and abundant wealth.
Next week's market is worry-free, and we cannot rule out the possibility of once again hitting 4000 points. Because next week is a key point for the year-end market, let's wait and see!
(Note: This article is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. The market has risks, and investment should be cautious.)
How will the market unfold next? Follow me@崎哥说币 #加密市场观察 $BTC
