If you were an old player in the crypto circle from 2022 to 2023, you would definitely be familiar with the term 'holding coins' — but new friends who enter the market in 2025 probably haven't even heard of it.
Back in the day, the crypto circle was swept by the trend of 'holding altcoins', with various 'sages' pushing lists, the most popular being the ten altcoins listed by the Red God (who later turned out to be a scammer), and lists similar to 'must-hold hundredfold coins' flew everywhere. At that time, everyone thought that holding altcoins meant financial freedom wasn't just a dream!
Now looking at the market, who still mentions 'holding coins'? This term has long been disbelieved, as reality has harshly slapped us in the face.
I. The bull market rises in three waves; as altcoins rise, they become more disappointing.
This round of the bull market that has already ended is actually divided into three waves of rising: November 2023 - March 2024, November - December 2024, and April - August 2025.
Bitcoin has been soaring, with three peaks reaching 73,777 USD, 100,000 USD, and 126,000 USD, each higher than the last. But altcoins have suffered; take NEAR as an example, the first wave rose to 9u, the second wave fell to 8u, and the third wave directly hit 3.3u, with each peak lower than the last, a classic case of 'Wang Xiaoer celebrating New Year, each year worse than the last.'
The logic of everyone hoarding altcoins back in the day was very simple: they thought altcoins would synchronize and surge with Bitcoin, or even rise more sharply. So when NEAR hit 9u in March 2024, no one thought of selling; they were all waiting for the 'bigger market coming later.' What happened? In 2025, they only waited for 'a big lump' — a big bearish candle!
All I can say is that 2025, from any angle, has been shocking. After being beaten down so badly, no one takes 'hoarding coins' seriously anymore. Only @CredibleCrypto is still holding onto CRV, thinking it can rise to 6u, while most people have long cleared their altcoin spot holdings and fled for safety.
II. Why does hoarding coins crash?
The times have changed, and the gameplay is different! Back in 2020-2021, it was a one-sided bull market, surging all the way up; hoarding altcoins could indeed make money. But this round of the bull market has the rhythm of 'three small bulls'; altcoins are not in an upward structure at all, just oscillating back and forth in a large range. Still thinking of replicating past experiences? It would be strange not to lose! After all, one cannot step into the same river twice, and the crypto world cannot become rich twice relying on the same set of methods.
The macro environment in 2025 is too tricky! To put it simply, the US economy is shrinking + high interest rates, making it impossible for most cryptocurrencies to rise. Bitcoin can rise purely due to the 'performance' of Trump, and it has nothing to do with other altcoins. This has been discussed a lot before, so I won't dwell on it here.
III. The current altcoins: awkward to the point of being pathetic.
The most outrageous situation has arrived: Bitcoin is still at a relatively high position, and the US stock market has reached new highs (a typical top divergence), but altcoins have already fallen to the bottom!
Still talking about NEAR, 0.9u in October 2023, surged to 9u in March 2024, and now back to 1.5u. This price looks like the bottom, right? After all, it’s a fully circulated coin with a high market cap. But the problem is, Bitcoin and the US stock market may still have room to fall, so who dares to start hoarding?
If Bitcoin and altcoins synchronized their bottoming out, coupled with a four-year cycle bear market, people would feel more secure buying. But it’s only 2025 now, and altcoins have fallen like this while Bitcoin is still 'swaying at a high position,' and the US stock market is showing signs of 'thinning out'; it just turned bearish for two months, and the subsequent trend is really uncertain.
IV. Where is the bottom of altcoins? Don't blindly believe in 'close to the bottom.'
@0xENAS said that altcoins are close to the bottom, and that statement is correct — indeed close relative to the top. For example, if a coin drops from 10u to 2u, it is certainly much closer to the bottom than when it was at 260u, but that doesn’t mean the subsequent drop will be small! A drop from 2u to 1u can still be a halving.
Take SOL as an example; it peaked at 260u in 2021, then dropped to 80u in March 2022, seeming close to the bottom, right? But after a rebound, it fell to 30u in September, and then down to 8u after the FTX incident. That’s a drop of 70% first, then 60%, and finally another drop of 70%. 80u is indeed closer than 260u, but it can still be halved three more times!
However, to put it back, regardless of whether it’s 80u, 30u, or 8u, those who bought now see profits. So I don’t deny that the current price is closer to the bottom, but many altcoins have a high probability of being cut in half again.
Of course, there’s no need to be too pessimistic — even if many coins are halved again in 2026, by 2027-2029, prices will likely be much higher than they are now.
To summarize: if you want to find the absolute bottom, you must be prepared for the worst, but don’t lose hope for the future. As for whether to hoard altcoins now? I can only say that being cautious is not a bad thing; after all, the pitfalls in the crypto world are always difficult to guard against!
