Just saw the data, only 1,035,000 bitcoins are left to be mined. What does this mean? It means that 94% of bitcoins have already been mined, and miners are competing for the last 6% of the 'digital gold.'
Every time this kind of news comes out, there are always a bunch of people shouting 'scarcity drives surging prices' and 'about to break through XX ten thousand,' but I must pour cold water on you: news is the cheapest stimulant for the market and also the most deadly trap for retail investors.
1. Two deadly traps behind the scarcity narrative
Trap 1: Scarcity ≠ immediate surging prices
Data shows that after the fourth halving, the inflation rate of Bitcoin is only 0.78%, indeed lower than gold's 1.5%-2%. But history tells us that the surging prices after halving often require time to brew:
After the 2012 halving, the increase was over 8000% in a year, but there was a six-month period of volatility beforehand.
Since the halving in 2024, the increase is about 31%, far from the explosive period.
My view: Scarcity is the long-term value support, not an excuse for short-term spikes. Those who shout 'the last Bitcoin will be mined' often die on the road of leveraged liquidation, just like in May this year when Bitcoin surged to $110,000 and 130,000 people were liquidated for $500 million in a single day.
Trap 2: Institutions are leveraging your FOMO emotions
When you are excited about 'only 1 million coins left', the whales have already completed their layouts:
BlackRock's IBIT holds over 190,000 BTC, surpassing MicroStrategy
The top 25 banks in the U.S. are launching Bitcoin services
The harsh truth: Institutions knew this data six months before you. They are not giving you money; they are waiting for you to take the plunge.
2. Guideline for news operations: Don't be a leek, be a hunter
1. Identify 'news lag'
All public information has already been priced in by the market. When you see the news, institutions have already completed their positions.
Countermeasure: Focus on on-chain data (such as changes in whale addresses, inflows and outflows from exchanges), which is 1-2 weeks earlier than news.
2. Beware of the 'good news offloading' trick
History repeatedly proves: When positive news is released, it is often the period for the main force to offload.
Case: Bitcoin rose 118% in the 6 months before the 2024 halving, but only rose 6% in the 6 months after the halving; those who chased the highs were all trapped.
My strategy: Take profits in batches during news euphoria, and decisively bottom fish during panic sell-offs.
3. Grasp the real long-term logic
The value of Bitcoin's scarcity is not in the 'remaining mining volume', but in the continuous purchasing power from institutions:
The daily trading volume of spot Bitcoin ETFs accounts for 15%-20% of the global total, becoming the largest money-sucking black hole
By 2030, ARK predicts Bitcoin could reach $2.4 million in a bull market scenario.
Core view: Instead of worrying about 'how many coins are left', focus on 'how much institutional money is yet to enter the market'.
3. Survival rules for ordinary people
Regular investment > All-in
Invest at a fixed time each month, ignoring short-term fluctuations. Historical data shows that regular investments in Bitcoin over a four-year cycle have yielded over 300%.
Position management is critical
Never chase news trends with leverage. The 130,000 people who were liquidated in May, who among them didn't want to 'double their money'?
Patience is more important than technology
Grayscale predicts Bitcoin will hit a new high in the first half of 2026. But if you can't stand the current fluctuations, no matter how high the rise, it has nothing to do with you.
Finally, I want to share a heartfelt message:
I have been in the industry for 8 years and have seen too many people lose all their principal chasing news. The real winners are those who lay out when no one cares and exit when the crowd is celebrating.
These last Bitcoins are not fast food for speculators, but a feast for believers.
Follow me@币圈罗盘 Next time, I will take you through the underlying logic of contract strategy, helping you avoid detours and earn real money!#比特币流动性 $BTC $ETH
