History is always astonishingly similar #BTC
Currently similar to the deep decline before the bear market accumulation period, the macro environment intensifies bearish sentiment. After the December Federal Reserve meeting, market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 weakened, the US dollar index strengthened, and risk assets came under pressure. Citigroup's bear market case predicts BTC to fall to $78,500; if a global recession strikes, it will be even more detrimental. Don't forget that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates by 25 basis points on December 19—historically, every time the BoJ tightens, BTC has plummeted by over 20%, with a 23% drop in March 2022, a 26% drop in July 2024, and a 31% drop in January 2025. Now, leveraged players are excessive, and futures positions continue to rise. Once liquidity tightens, a wave of liquidations will push prices lower. Data shows that on-chain demand is weak, large whales continue to sell, while retail investors are buying at low prices, providing exit liquidity.
From on-chain data, the MVRV ratio (market cap/realized value) has fallen from its peak but is still above historical bear lows, indicating that the valuation bubble has not burst. The outflow of Bitcoin ETFs has accelerated, with net redemptions from funds like Grayscale exceeding $1 billion, and institutional interest has cooled. Fundstrat warns of a significant correction in the first half of 2026, with a BTC target of $60,000-$65,000. CryptoQuant analysis shows that demand is weakening, and the short-term rebound is just a dead cat bounce—prices may first touch the $80,000 support level, and if that breaks, it will head straight for the $70,000 level before the election.
Of course, being bearish does not mean being eternally bearish. History proves that bear markets are accumulation opportunities: buying at $15,000 at the bottom of 2022 has now multiplied five times. But now FOMO has turned into FOGO, and retail investors need to be cautious. It is advisable to set stop losses, avoid high leverage, and wait for clear bottom signals such as RSI double bottoms or MACD golden crosses.
In summary, BTC's short-term bear path is long, and historical patterns warn us: don’t be fooled by false rebounds. Guard your wallet, and patiently wait for the low points—perhaps $80,000 is the next battlefield.
