🚨 EMPLOYMENT HIT IN THE U.S.: OCTOBER WAS NOT NORMAL 🚨
📉 CONFIRMED:
The United States recorded a sharp drop in non-farm employment in October, and it was NOT just a simple economic cooling.
💣 The key that many ignore:
• Thousands of federal government employees left the payrolls
• This occurred due to "deferred resignation" plans and effects related to the reorganization/partial shutdown of the government
• The hit distorted the employment data, pushing the numbers down
👉 It was not a sudden recession. It was an administrative shock… but the number hit just the same.
📊 CITIC Securities reading (REAL, but it's analysis):
• If unemployment does NOT continue to rise in December,
👉 the Fed could PAUSE the rate cuts in January
• The upcoming meetings could still see
👉 limited cuts of 25 basis points, not aggressive
⚠️ Message for traders and the market:
• The data is weak in the headline
• But the context shows that not all the deterioration is structural
• Still, the Fed reacts to data, not excuses
🧠 Smoke-free translation:
• Weak employment = pressure on the Fed
• But if unemployment stabilizes
👉 the pace of cuts slows
• Less future liquidity than many expect
🔥 Harsh conclusion:
This data is NOT fake,
IS NOT automatically bullish,
and DOES NOT guarantee more stimulus.
It is a reminder that the labor market is no longer invincible
and that each data point now weighs twice in monetary policy.
Temporary weakness… or the beginning of something bigger? 👀📉