Time node: December 21 morning (China time)
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1. BTC | Bitcoin today's market analysis (≈ 88,284 USDT)
① Current position (very critical)
BTC's current position can be summarized in one sentence:
The rebound after the drop is stuck below the medium-term pressure level.
You can clearly see from your chart:
• Previous sharp drop low point: 84,450
• Resistance at the rebound high: 89,000–90,000
• Current price: 88,284
👉 Note:
This is a rebound after a drop; it hasn't turned into a reversal yet.
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② Moving average structure (slightly neutral and weak)
• MA7 has already turned upward
• MA25 is still trending down
• Price is trapped between MA7 and MA25
📌 What does this represent?
Short-term repair is established, but the medium-term trend is still suppressed.
Pay attention to one sentence:
• If it doesn't break MA25 (≈ 89k–90k), the rebound can only be considered a repair
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③ Volume (very real)
• Volume increases during declines
• Volume decreases during rebounds
📌 This is a textbook rebound characteristic:
Funds are on the sidelines, not actively buying.
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④ KDJ (short-term overheated)
• K, D, J all at high levels
• J value has clearly been high
📌 The meaning is straightforward:
Short-term continues to chase the rise, easy to get trapped.
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⑤ BTC Today's Critical Price Level
Support Level
• Short-term Support: 87,500
• Strong Support: 85,800–86,200
• Structural Bottom Line: 84,450
Resistance Level
• First Resistance: 88,800
• Core Resistance: 89,800–90,200
• True strength: stabilize above 92,000
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✅ BTC Today's Conclusion
It is a fluctuating repair, not the main rising segment.
• ❌ Not suitable for chasing longs
• ❌ High levels are not suitable for adding positions
• ✅ More suitable for: buy low on pullbacks / wait for directional confirmation
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II. ETH | Ethereum Today's Trend Analysis (≈ 2,975 USDT)
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① Core Features of ETH
Let me clarify in one sentence:
ETH is slightly stronger than BTC, but has not exited a trend reversal either.
ETH's rebound is more straightforward than BTC, but the problem is—
The rebound encounters a harder moving average wall.
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② Structural Deconstruction
• Lower Low: 2,775
• Rebound high point: around 3,000
• Current: 2,975
👉 ETH is doing one thing:
Pullback area of MA25 + MA99 overlapping resistance.
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③ Moving Average & Technical State
• MA7 has crossed above MA25 (short-term bullish)
• MA99 is at ≈ 3,045, clearly suppressing
📌 This means:
ETH If it cannot break through 3,050, it can easily be pushed back into the range.
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④ Volume & Sentiment
• Rebound has volume, but sustainability is weak
• Upper shadow has begun to appear
📌 Typical Signal:
There are profit-taking positions reducing, not an unbroken rush to buy.
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⑤ ETH Today's Critical Price Level
Support Level
• Short-term Support: 2,920
• Core Support: 2,850–2,880
• Defense Bottom Line: 2,775
Resistance Level
• First Resistance: 3,000
• Strong Resistance: 3,050–3,100
• Strength Confirmation: Above 3,200
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✅ ETH Today's Conclusion
In the rebound, but still belongs to the range market.
• ❌ Do not chase above 3,000
• ❌ Not suitable for frequently chasing rises and falls
• ✅ More suitable for low-level setups after a pullback
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III. Today's most important sentence (you must remember)
BTC and ETH are both 'rebounding after a drop' today, not 'trend reversal'.
So:
• Today's most likely losing operation: chasing rises
• Today's most reliable strategy: wait for a pullback, light positions, leave room for maneuver
