散户阿蔡

I lost back everything earned by luck, relying entirely on my skills, and encountered several scams during this period.

experienced in just a few months.

Hundreds of thousands earned by luck,

just like that—

I lost it bit by bit through my own efforts.

It wasn't a single liquidation.

It wasn't a single all-in bet.

is a series of continuous wrong decisions.

More ironically,

just when I thought I had 'seen the world',

the scam came.

The first scam,

dressed in a 'legitimate' guise.

That was a telegram group.

There are many people,

tens of thousands of people.

Someone is talking in the group 24 hours a day.

I can make a fortune here.

Once this thought takes root in my mind,

Everything that happens afterward is actually predetermined.

I started to walk down an extremely dramatic and tragic path.

I no longer get tangled up in white papers, teams, or technology.

Those things are too slow.

Local dogs don't need logic.

I calculated a sum for myself.

Very simple, simple to the point of being scary.

A local dog, buy 5000 pieces.

I buy ten at the same time.

As long as there is one that multiplies by 10 times,

Everything else goes to zero,

I have no loss.

At that moment, I even felt smart.

I think this is probability.

Start to learn about major software, wallets, and other apps

Losing less than 10,000 above was just the beginning of my deep involvement in the crypto industry below.

I disappeared for a while. I started to learn about major software, wallets, social media, and other apps.

It's not that I've quit the crypto world,

it's that I've been a bit scared.

After those losses,

I dared not click on exchanges anymore; in just 2-3 days, I had already lost around 10,000.

Whenever I see price fluctuations on my phone,

my heart tightens.

But people have a flaw.

As long as they haven't given up, they will definitely come back.

During that time, I started to take it 'seriously'.

📅 2025 年 12 月 19 日｜BTC & ETH 行情（北京时间）
一、比特币（BTC/USDT）今日行情分析
现价：≈ 84,900 USDT
⸻
1️⃣ 大趋势判断（先给结论）
👉 日线级别：弱势下跌结构，还没走完
• 价格同时 跌破 MA7（87700）和 MA25（89700）
• MA7、MA25 都在向下
• MA99 在 10.4 万上方，长期趋势仍偏空
📌 一句话结论：
BTC 现在是「下跌趋势中的整理段」，不是新一轮上涨起点。
⸻
2️⃣ K 线结构（看多空谁更强）
• 从 105,000 → 80,600 急跌
• 反弹最高到 92,000
• 目前在 85,000 附近横盘后再度向下
这属于典型的：
下跌 → 反弹 → 再确认方向
而现在这个确认，是 向下确认。
⸻
3️⃣ 成交量（主力态度）
• 最近几根下跌 K 线：
• 成交量没有明显放大
• 说明：
• 没有恐慌盘
• 主力并未疯狂砸盘
📌 这也是为什么 BTC 没有像 ETH 那样暴跌。
⸻
4️⃣ KDJ 指标（情绪位置）
• K ≈ 17
• D ≈ 28
• J ≈ -6
👉 进入超卖区
⚠️ 但注意一句很重要的话：
超卖 ≠ 立刻反弹，只代表“跌得有点多了”。
⸻
5️⃣ 关键价位（今天最重要）
支撑位：
• 84,500（今天低点）
• 80,600（前低，极强支撑）
压力位：
• 86,000（短压）
• 88,000（MA7）
• 90,000（心理关口）
⸻
6️⃣ BTC 今日操作逻辑（说人话）
• ❌ 不追空（位置不合适）
• ❌ 不重仓抄底（趋势未止）
• ✅ 唯一值得做的事：
• 盯 84,500~85,000
• 如果 放量跌破 → 看 80,600
• 如果 缩量止跌 → 小反弹到 86k~88k
📌 BTC 是“犹豫盘”，资金还没表态。
⸻
二、以太坊（ETH/USDT）今日行情分析
现价：≈ 2,786 USDT
⸻
1️⃣ 趋势判断（比 BTC 明确）
👉 ETH 是标准的空头趋势延续
• 跌破 MA7（2970）
• 跌破 MA25（3040）
• MA99 在 3690 上方
📌 一句话：
ETH 比 BTC 更弱，资金已经在撤。
⸻
2️⃣ K 线形态
• 从 3210 → 2780 连续阴跌
• 反弹力度一次比一次弱
• 今天是 阴跌延续
⚠️ 这不是洗盘，是放弃式下跌
⸻
3️⃣ 成交量
• 下跌时 成交量明显放大
• 说明：
• 有止损
• 有被动卖出
📌 这是 ETH 最危险的地方。
⸻
4️⃣ KDJ 指标
• K ≈ 14
• D ≈ 28
• J ≈ -13
👉 严重超卖
但我必须强调一句：
ETH 在下跌趋势中，超卖可以继续超卖。
⸻
5️⃣ 关键价位
支撑位：
• 2750
• 2620~2650（前低，强支撑）
压力位：
• 2890
• 2970（MA7）
• 3050（MA25）
⸻
6️⃣ ETH 今日操作逻辑
• ❌ 不抄底
• ❌ 不追空
• ✅ 反弹到 2890~2970 是减仓区
• ✅ 真正的博弈点只在 2620 一带
⸻
三、最终一句话总结
BTC 是“还在犹豫的空头”，ETH 是“已经投降的空头”。
当前市场阶段：
• 不适合激进
• 适合 等情绪杀到位

It was my first recharge, and I only added 100 yuan.

To be honest,

that little money,

I considered it as 'testing the waters' at that time.

Even if it's gone,

I wouldn't feel heartbroken.

As for what coins I bought—

I can't even remember the names now.

I only remember it was a string of English letters,

the name was strange,

and it didn't look like anything serious.

Anyway, it's not Bitcoin.

I didn't even know the term 'spot' at that time,

I only learned it later.

At that time, I only knew—

after I clicked buy, the money was gone,

and I ended up with a coin I couldn't understand.

Right after I bought it,

the price seemed to have moved a bit.

The first half is my real experience, the latter half is just my fantasy; however enjoyable it is, that's how I fantasize (please advise me more)
In my previous life, it's not pleasant to say, it was really a mess.
I haven't attended any serious classes.
I haven't worked in any factories, but I've been exposed to many industries; however, I can't make any money.
I've been involved in e-commerce, engaged with self-media, done various jobs, but my attitude towards work is only 30% enthusiasm and 70% indifference.
The job I've held the longest is as an office clerk. About 5000 yuan a month, 9 to 6, and by the end of the month, the salary just barely covers living expenses.

📅 December 18, 2025 | BTC & ETH Market (Beijing Time) 1. BTC (Bitcoin) Today's Market Analysis
Current Price: ≈ 85,950 USDT (-2.19%)
⸻
1️⃣ Trend Structure
• BTC is the same:
• Broke MA7 (88776)
• Broke MA25 (89806)
• MA99 at 104,500 → The long-term trend is still bearish
📌 But note:
BTC is stronger than ETH by one level
⸻
2️⃣ Pattern Interpretation
• Plummeted from 107,500 → 80,600
• Rebounded to 92,000~93,000
• Now is again moving down after a high-level consolidation

📅 December 17, 2025 | BTC & ETH Market (Beijing Time)
Current Price: ≈ 87,869 USDT
1️⃣ Trend Structure (Key Point)
• Large-scale trend: still a bullish phase in a pullback
• From 107,500 → 80,600 is a standard deep pullback
• Currently in the secondary pullback phase after the rebound
👉 Not the main downward wave, but a consolidation bottoming
⸻
2️⃣ Moving Average Structure (Very Critical)
• MA7 ≈ 89,644
• MA25 ≈ 89,758
• Price is below the short-term moving average
• MA99 (≈104,782) is still under pressure at a distance
📌 Note:
Short-term biased weak, but not a collapse structure

1. There is an investment trust under Grayscale called “Grayscale Horizen Trust (HZEN)”, which is designed to allow qualified investors to indirectly hold Horizen’s ZEN tokens in the form of securities.
2. This trust has not been abandoned; rather, it is undergoing structural migration and adjustments:
• In order to align with the technical migration of the Horizen project itself, Grayscale is converting trust assets from the original main chain's ZEN to the ERC-20 format ZEN Base Tokens on the Base chain.
• This means that the trust itself will recognize the new Base chain ZEN, rather than the ZEN from the original main chain as assets.

📅 December 16, 2025 | BTC & ETH market (Beijing time)
📉 Important market signals (as of today's trend)
1) The overall market is in a weak adjustment pattern
• Bitcoin's market sentiment over the weekend and today is cautious, with prices once falling below around $86,000, significantly retreating from recent highs. This is mainly due to increased selling pressure on risk assets and low trading sentiment.
• Ethereum is also under pressure, dropping in sync with BTC, with a decline typically slightly larger than Bitcoin.
2) Macro/Funding impacts
• The market's expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have weakened, and the bullish drive is not obvious, which puts pressure on high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

📅 December 15, 2025 | BTC & ETH Market (Beijing Time)
I. BTC / USDT
Current Price: ≈ 88,200 USDT
24h: Down about 2%
Structural Judgment: Weak Fluctuation Period After Decline
🔍 Technical Points (Key Information on Your Chart)
• MA99 ≈ 105,000 👉 Clearly Downward
→ Mid-term Trend Not Reversed
• Price Below MA7 and MA25
• KDJ:
• K≈28, D≈44, J Has Clearly Weakened
→ Weak Zone, No Rebound Signal Formed Yet
🎯 Key Price Level (Focus)
• Support
• 88,000 (Current Game Level)
• 86,000 (Very Critical)
• 80,600 (Extreme Defense Line)

📅 2025-12-14
⸻
🟡 1. Bitcoin BTC
1️⃣ Current status (a sentence from retail investors)
👉 BTC is oscillating downwards, facing short-term pressure around ~90K.
2️⃣ Key position (simple understanding)
• 🧱 Short-term support: ~88,000-90,000
• 🚧 Short-term pressure: ~94,000-99,000
The current price is repeatedly tormenting retail investors' emotions in this range.
3️⃣ Retail perspective interpretation
• Market risk appetite is weak, U.S. stocks/macroeconomic news affect BTC sentiment.
• The short-term does not have a clear upward signal, so do not chase the rise.
• A downward breakout at 88K may intensify selling pressure (danger signal).