Recently, the market has been frequently fluctuating, and the overall market still hasn't chosen a direction. The technical indicators are still leaning bearish, and the weekly downtrend has not changed. The macroeconomic positives and negatives can't alter the short-term situation. The next two weeks will be Christmas and New Year, and liquidity will only get worse. Sideways fluctuations or gradual declines will continue, and we’ll see if there will be a wave of market activity in January or February next year.
Sister Bei doesn't want to wait any longer, and it's been three months already. So she chose to liquidate all positions as planned, no longer exhausting her energy. After this review post, she will close her real trading and distribute dividends to the shareholders. It's time to rest and summarize, leaving more time for more meaningful activities and to spend more time with family. Some say, what if the market rises? Then short it, Sister Bei will also become a short seller.
Since entering the market with Bitcoin at 74800 on April 9, this account has not had a single short position; most of the time it has been in a state of strong holding with full investment. I previously summarized that there are still significant issues with position management and currency selection, so after more than half a year, the account's highest point was nearly doubled but not cashed out. The sharp drop wasn’t managed with stop-losses, resulting in a rollercoaster ride. The principal in real trading has also been halved, dropping from 1,628,000 to 715,000 after liquidation, resulting in a loss of nearly 1 million, with a return rate of -56%. Although it was a floating loss, this result left me very disappointed.
The summary of experiences during this period of real trading is actually almost the same as the trend of the entire cryptocurrency market this year. The best investment strategy is simply not to invest in cryptocurrencies; if you exited the market at the beginning of the year, you could outperform 95% of people, except for a few who sold at the peak of 120,000. Even if you bought Bitcoin at the beginning of the year and held it until now, you are still at a loss, not to mention that Ethereum has been in decline for nine months this year, breaking the record since 2018.
The script that unfolded this year is something that few people could have predicted. Mainstream altcoins have almost all been in a state of continuous decline this year, and neither interest rate cuts nor ETF support have helped. The market manipulation has been ruthless, taking advantage of the hopes during the bull market's altcoin season, starting to cash out a year early and trapping retail investors at the peak for a whole year. Even now, there are still endless bottom-fishing opportunities; I am indeed impressed by this manipulation and will withdraw while you keep playing.
This year, essentially, has been Bitcoin's own bull market, while it has been a bear market for altcoins. This bull market has been within the high interest rate cycle of the Federal Reserve, with rate cuts being significantly delayed, more than half a year later than I originally expected. With a lack of bullish sentiment and the explosion of VC funding in the past two years, there are so many investment targets that it is hard to choose, leading to serious capital diversion.
Moreover, this round has not seen any decent sustainable development narratives or applications; there are only inscriptions and meme launch trading platforms, which are essentially just a wave of cutting retail investors. This situation and problem will remain unresolved in the next bull market.
This has resulted in a continuous divergence in the market trends of Bitcoin and mainstream altcoins. Using Bitcoin's trend to invest in altcoins for the long term has already proven to be completely unworkable. The secondary market for altcoins is doomed; if you make money, you have to run. This is my most profound lesson; those who made money are the ones who held for the medium term, while those who lost are the ones involved in long-term patterns. In the next round of investment, mainstream and altcoins no longer attract me; it is better to buy chain-based U.S. stocks, which are more reliable and easier to manage.
Additionally, the industry's dividends have almost disappeared. The influx of funds from Wall Street and the manipulation of the contract market have led to this round of Bitcoin's bull market being reduced to an increase of only 8.15 times. Such volatility is also difficult to attract long-term investors; it is indeed better to invest elsewhere. This year, the global stock market, gold, and precious metals are all stronger than Bitcoin. The siphoning effect will lead to a vicious cycle. So why would capital choose to venture into the cryptocurrency market?
Sister Bei is still better at investing rather than trading. With these questions in mind, the only reason I can convince myself to continue investing in the cryptocurrency market next round is the global liquidity cycle. There are only a few good targets worth investing in: the world's largest decentralized asset, Bitcoin; the most centralized quality asset in the decentralized field, BNB; and low-threshold chain-based U.S. stocks like MicroStrategy and Nvidia. These four targets as an investment portfolio can outperform the vast majority. Buying and holding until the end of next year will suffice, without the need to constantly track and analyze.
My biggest personal gain this year was fulfilling my small wish of receiving an award in Dubai; that is the only thing that did not let me down. In summary, if 2024 is a year full of hope and excitement, then this year has been incredibly torturous and disappointing. The successes and failures of the past are the best arrangements and the optimal solutions I can make, allowing everything unsatisfactory to pass. Let go of burdens and live well in the present, continuing to accumulate strength for the future.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #比特币流动性 #美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs #巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察
