Bitcoin seems to have flipped the switch to a much more delicate moment in the cycle. Data tracked by CryptoQuant, released by Odaily, shows that the demand for the cryptocurrency has been clearly losing strength since October 2025, a classic signal of entering a bear market.
According to analysts, the major drivers that fueled investor interest have almost been exhausted. The approval of spot ETFs, the effect of the U.S. presidential election in 2024, and the peak of corporate allocations in financial assets acted as three strong waves, but are now showing signs of exhaustion.
In the last quarter, ETFs reduced their positions by about 24,000 BTC, while the funding rates of perpetual contracts plummeted to the lowest level since December 2023, reflecting a much more contained appetite for risk. To worsen the scenario, the price of Bitcoin broke below the 365-day moving average, around $98,172, an important technical support widely observed by the market.
Despite this, there is still a glimmer of hope among some analysts, who bet on possible interest rate cuts throughout 2026 as a trigger for a recovery. In the short term, however, the mood remains heavy: only 22.1% of investors believe in a rate cut already at the January FOMC meeting, reinforcing the cautious sentiment that dominates the market now.
