The large pancake is currently fluctuating around 88000, with a slight drop of 0.16% over the past 24 hours, in a high-level consolidation and directional selection window. In the short term, it is biased towards consolidation, with key support at 88000 and a breakthrough at 90000. Macro liquidity and ETF funds are the main drivers.

On the hourly level (short-term rhythm), it is fluctuating narrowly between 87700-88500, with support at the integer level of 88000. The long lower shadow confirms its effectiveness, the Bollinger Bands are converging, and trading volume is shrinking. MACD is near the zero axis, showing a bullish crossover trend but with weak momentum; KDJ is neutral; the hourly EMA30 (around 87800) serves as the short-term bullish-bearish boundary. Above 88000 is biased towards bullish, with targets at 88800-89200; breaking below 87700 turns bearish, looking at 87000-86500; do not chase highs without volume, in and out quickly.

On the four-hour level (medium-short direction), there is extreme horizontal consolidation, with the EMA indicators converging, 89500 pressure above, and 87700 support below, with the 90000 level as the watershed for direction. The EMA shows a top divergence, KDJ has a death cross but the price is consolidating at a high level, MACD shows a decrease in volume, and there is significant divergence between bullish and bearish sentiments. A breakthrough at 89500 with increased volume may lead to a rise towards 90500-91000; losing 87700 may lead to a pullback to 86000-85000.

ETF continues to flow in, but the recent market is in a positive digestion period; exchange reserves are at historical lows, with limited selling pressure, and funds prefer stablecoins and Bitcoin as a hedge.

There is a strong correlation with the Nasdaq 100, and the resilience of inflation (CPI around 3%) affects the Fed's rate-cutting pace, with Bitcoin’s risk asset attributes becoming prominent in a high-volatility environment.

The psychological pressure at the 90000 level is high, biased towards bearish in the short term, waiting for direction selection, while in the long term, it is still supported by liquidity and ETF funds.

Short-term: Relying on the support at 88000, if encountering resistance near 89500, a light position can be taken to try shorting, with a stop loss of 500-800 points. Target 🎯 looks at 86000-85000.

Medium-short: Wait for a significant breakthrough or breakdown at the four-hour level to confirm the direction before increasing positions; looking up at 94000, looking down first at 85000.

Risk control: During the consolidation period, position ≤30%, strictly control stop losses, avoid chasing orders. $BTC $ETH #加密市场观察