凌芸的日常

Online unwinding, layout for medium to long-term, short-term band guidance, a directionless chat room is here~~ Online waiting $BTC $ETH #加密市场回调 #美联储降息预期

The script idea given in advance is still okay!

Gold daily line bullish arrangement, support zone at $4300-4320 is solid, with strong resistance zone at $4350-4380. MACD red bars slightly shrinking, RSI is neutral to strong, overbought pullback pressure is manageable.
4 hours: After a sharp drop, a long lower shadow formed, EMA moving average support is effective, MACD green bars are shrinking, with a turn, bearish momentum is weakening.
1 hour: After a short-term pullback, stabilizing at the middle track, Bollinger Bands are closing, both bulls and bears are competing at $4320-4340, waiting for direction choice.
The logic for the rise is that the Federal Reserve will cumulatively cut interest rates by 75 basis points by 2025, with clear easing expectations; global central banks continue to buy gold, and the People's Bank of China has increased its holdings for 13 consecutive months.
Discrepancies in interest rate cut rhythm, tonight's PCE data disturbance, and fluctuations in U.S. stocks may lead to repeated testing of the $4300 level.
London gold is currently about $4340, with short-term fluctuations biased towards strength, the 4-hour bullish pattern remains intact, and the hourly chart shows a demand for pullback. The key is to watch the $4320 support; if it holds, continue to look up at $4350-4380, if it breaks, then it may test $4300.

Gold: Sell near $4350-4342, looking down towards $4300; for Gold: Buy at $4300-4310, looking up at $4340-4350 - if it breaks through, look at $4380.

The Big Cake and the Second Cake Evening Thoughts
Currently, the daily trend of the Big Cake is weak and volatile, focusing on two prices:
The support line is around 85000; if the daily closing price falls below this level, it is highly likely to drop further, with support around 78000-80000.

If it rises, it will first encounter resistance at around 88000-89000, making it difficult to break through; to truly reverse the trend and strengthen, it must stabilize above 91000.

The indicators are not supportive; MACD shows a bearish signal, and while RSI shows some signs of not dropping further, it has not reached the level of reversal yet. The current rebound is basically a technical pullback after a significant drop.

The Big Cake is short around 90000-88500, looking down to 85000-86000.

The Second Cake is short around 3000-2950, looking down to 2800-2730.

Bitcoin rose and then fell last night, breaking through the 90,000 mark but unable to maintain it, currently dropping to around 86,200. Bitcoin's short-term trend is weak and volatile, with the hourly chart showing weakness and the 4-hour chart having support. The key point to watch is whether 86,000 can hold; if it breaks, it could drop to 85,000 USD or even lower. It has fallen below the 1-hour EMA, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing downwards, and the price is running along the lower band, favoring the bears.

The MACD is below the zero line, with green bars continuing and no significant decrease in volume, indicating that bearish momentum has not diminished. The RSI is below 40, entering a weak zone, with no signs of oversold rebound. Support is at 85,200 USD, and resistance is at 86,800 (1-hour MA30). The rebound is weak, so be cautious when chasing long positions; if not in the market, observe and consider light short positions if the rebound encounters resistance.

Bitcoin is expected to rebound near 86,500-87,000, with potential drops to around 85,200-83,000.

Altcoin is expected to rebound near 2,870-2,860, looking towards 2,750-2,700.

The golden daily line shows a bullish arrangement, with a solid support range of $4300-$4320, and strong resistance between $4350-$4380. The MACD red bars are slightly shrinking, and the RSI is neutral to strong, with controllable pressure for a pullback from overbought conditions.
4 hours: After a sharp drop, a long lower shadow is formed, the EMA moving average support is effective, and the MACD green bars are shrinking with a turning point, indicating weakening bearish momentum.
1 hour: After a short-term pullback, it stabilizes around the middle track, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and there is a game between bulls and bears at $4320-$4340, waiting for direction to choose.
The logic for the rise is the Federal Reserve's cumulative interest rate cuts of 75 basis points by 2025, with clear expectations for easing; global central banks continue to buy gold, and the People's Bank of China has increased its holdings for 13 consecutive months.
Discrepancies in the pace of rate cuts, tonight's PCE data disturbances, and the fluctuations in the US stock market may trigger repeated tests at the $4300 level.
London gold is currently around $4340, with a short-term bias towards strong fluctuations. The 4-hour bullish pattern remains intact, with a demand for a pullback on the hourly chart. The key focus is on the $4320 support; if stabilized, it will continue to look up towards $4350-$4380, while a breakdown will lead to probing $4300.

Gold: Short near $4350-$4342, looking for a break below around $4300 for $4270.
Gold: Long near $4300-$4310, looking up towards $4340-$4350, with a breakout targeting $4380.

Wednesday Big Cake Two Cake Evening Thoughts
Big Cake fell from around 88000 to around 86200 after increasing in the early morning and maintained a range of 87200-86200 during the afternoon.
Currently, the daily line shows a bearish increase, the four-hour structure shows a three consecutive bearish candles with decreasing volume, the trend is downward, and the hourly structure shows a bullish increase with a partial rebound in the market. The thought remains to keep a high position.

Big Cake near 88100-87600, look for a breakdown near 85000 to continue.
Just look down.

Big Cake near 2965-2985, look down near 2850-2800.

December 16th Gold Evening Thoughts
Gold experienced wide fluctuations at high levels, quickly rebounding to $4,335 after dipping to $4,272 during the day, ultimately closing at $4,302, basically flat. This volatility is driven by multiple factors: the rebound in U.S. job growth in November, but the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.6%, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, pushing the dollar to a two-month low, enhancing gold's appeal; the safe-haven demand from the Russia-Ukraine conflict also provided support for gold prices.

On the morning of the 17th in Asia, spot gold traded around $4,324, fluctuating within a narrow range. From a technical perspective, the hourly MACD shows a golden cross, and the RSI at 54.2 is cautious; the daily RSI has risen to 55.2, indicating increased buying power, with gold prices stabilizing above EMA7 and EMA30, while EMA120 is a key resistance level. The script provided by Yunjie during the day also has a good amount of space!

In terms of operations, if it holds around the support levels of $4,300 - $4,290, one can set up long positions, targeting $4,345; if $4,353 is not broken, it presents an excellent short position. Aggressive traders may consider entering short positions around $4,345 in advance. In a fluctuating market, excessive positioning is not recommended! A stable approach is advisable!

Wednesday Gold Morning Analysis
The one-hour level is showing an upward trend, the Bollinger Bands are expanding, the MACD has formed a golden cross with increased volume, and the RSI is in an oversold rebound. However, short-term signals have indicated a peak, with prices beginning to break below short-term support levels, and there was significant bearish selling pressure around 4330 last night, indicating a high likelihood of adjustment space ahead. In terms of operations, caution is needed for potential overbought pullbacks, while also monitoring the breakout situation in the resistance range of 4330 - 4350 and the key support level at 4270.

The four-hour overall is in a high-level triangular convergence oscillation state, with moving averages maintaining a bullish arrangement and the Bollinger Bands contracted. The MACD has a dead cross with reduced volume above the zero line, and the RSI has pulled back after being overbought. Currently, the gold price is operating within a specific range, with upper resistance concentrated at 4340/4342 and lower support at 4285/4281, in addition to the core support range of 4265 - 4255. Strong upper resistance is near 4350/4351, with further resistance at the 4367/4370 area. In the short term, it is essential to focus on the breakout situation in the range to adjust operational strategies.

Gold: Long around 4295-4300, targeting 4335-4250

Gold: Short around 4345-4335, targeting 4290-4275

Wednesday's thoughts on ETH
ETH is currently showing a converging triangle pattern, and the key support level has been broken, indicating an alternating state of overbought and oversold. In the short term, it is necessary to be cautious of its tendency to follow BTC's movements but with weaker independence; if BTC cannot break through the resistance level and retreats, ETH is likely to decline as well. Additionally, during a short-term rebound, it faces strong resistance, making sustained upward momentum difficult.

On the four-hour level: Previously, the MA5 and MA10 moving averages formed a death cross. After the price broke below the key support level of $2960, although the current RSI indicator has exited the extreme oversold range, there is a technical repair demand, but the rebound strength is limited. The lower Bollinger Band at $2830 forms potential support, while the middle band at $3020 constitutes strong short-term pressure. Overall, it presents a choppy consolidation trend, and it is very likely that there will be a wave of probing for a bottom! The short-term thought for the morning is to look at the high short and low long oscillation range!

ETH rebound at 3000-2990 short, looking down to 2870-2800$ETH #ETH走势分析

ETH pullback around 2880-2900 long, first looking at 3000-3050

Wednesday morning thought analysis
Bitcoin briefly rebounded to around $88,000, up about 1.8% for the day. Previously, it had dipped and then rebounded. While there has been a short-term rebound, it has not broken away from the overall adjustment trend that fell from the $126,000 high, nor has it breached the downward trend line at $90,500. From the perspective of short-term fluctuations, the rebound strength has not yet formed a strong reversal signal. Caution is needed; if it cannot stabilize at the current price level, it may retest the support around $85,000.

On the four-hour chart, the technical analysis shows a standard box oscillation trend, and there are signs of stabilization and bottoming out. Not only have there been multiple long lower wicks, but the RSI indicator is also in the oversold range, and the MACD is likely to form a bullish crossover below the zero line. This level is suitable for high short and low long operations within the box range, with a stop loss set at the lower edge of the box and a take profit at the upper edge of the box, with a risk-to-reward ratio of about 3.5. However, it should be noted that Bitcoin is still in an adjustment period. If the box oscillation is broken, the strategy needs to be adjusted promptly. The upward resistance level at $90,500 should be monitored, and the downward support level at $85,000 should be noted. Currently, I still believe it is in a high short and low long state!

Bitcoin is expected to bounce around $86,000-$86,500, aiming for $88,500-$89,000.

Bitcoin is expected to drop around $88,500-$89,000, looking down to $86,000-$85,500.

On Tuesday, the gold market in Asia plummeted directly, briefly falling below the $4300 mark, and is now fluctuating around $4285, down 0.5%! Ultimately, it's still futures traders taking profits, weak bulls closing positions, and coupled with positive news from the Ukraine peace talks, risk aversion has cooled down, leading to a decrease in gold demand. But don't rush to be bearish! The Federal Reserve's third interest rate cut this year has been implemented, and it has also signaled a continuation of rate cuts into 2026, significantly lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is a strong support. However, the easing of geopolitical risks will also keep gold prices from rising too high. Tonight's major event is the U.S. non-farm payroll report, retail sales, and PMI data coming in a concentrated barrage, which are key clues for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. If employment data is weak, expectations for rate cuts will rise, and gold is likely to soar; conversely, gold prices may face further selling. Looking at the technical side: the overall trend still looks bullish, with prices far above the 100-day EMA, the four-hour Bollinger Bands are opening up, and the RSI is stabilizing at the midline, with short-term bullish momentum increasing. The initial resistance above is at $4350, breaking through will push towards $4365 and $4381 historical highs; support below is at $4255, breaking that looks to $4200. Further down is the critical level at $4180. In summary, gold is experiencing increased short-term volatility, but the long-term trend is positive, and tonight's non-farm report is the 'steering wheel' of the market! For those who aren't sure, let's discuss real-time strategies together to pinpoint accurate levels! New traders often think that predicting the ups and downs will lead to profits, focusing on direction rather than specific levels, which often results in significant losses. It's important to know that trend ≠ short-term direction; the market operates in a fluctuating manner, and following the trend looks at the overall trend, not just short-term ups and downs. Here, I only engage in trades with clear rationale: managing positions and placing orders based on support and resistance levels, never entering blindly. If you're unsure about the market situation, feel free to reach out to Haocen. Professional matters should be left to professionals, and practical experience is only for profit, aiming for win-win cooperation!

Tuesday evening big pie and second pie strategy
The big pie maintains a range of 87000-85200 for oscillation adjustment and repair during the day, then rises to around 87200 near 85200 in the afternoon.

Currently, the daily line shows a small bullish bar with reduced volume, the four-hour structure shows a bullish trend with reduced volume rebound, and the hourly structure shows increased volume breaking through to the upper boundary. The non-farm data and PMI data will be released in the evening, causing significant fluctuations, and the high-level strategy will still be maintained in the evening.

The big pie rebounds around 87600-88300. A drop to around 84800-83500 is acceptable.

The second pie rebounds around 3050-3000, with a focus on 2900-2800.

Intraday script big pancake second pancake short empty, both have space

Gold Market Review + Non-Farm Payroll Outlook: 4360 Double Top Sets Direction, Non-Farm Payrolls May Not Boost Prices!

The double top pattern at 4360 is the 'signal light' for this round of decline. The K-line has directly pierced through the support from above the moving average and is now firmly pressed down by the moving average, representing a weak market with 'floor friction'.

I mentioned early yesterday that breaking through 4380 was unlikely, and indeed both attempts to push to 4360 were knocked down; the short strategy given at 4350 reached a low of 4285, and the idea has come to fruition. Currently, the weakness remains unchanged, and we continue to expect a pullback, with 4260 being the starting point for this round of increase, as well as the core target for the upcoming period.

The highlight tonight is the November Non-Farm Payrolls, where the expected data is favorable, but gold may not necessarily rise—market behavior often shows that 'the trend does not follow the data'.

This morning, we will first look at the rebound space and then the pullback; we are currently in a phase of consolidation.

Gold 4300 short position, targeting 4320, 4340 nearby.
Gold 4350, 4345 short, looking at 4280-4255.
#Gold# #ForexGold#

Tuesday Thoughts
Yesterday, Bitcoin maintained a narrow range consolidation before encountering a cliff-like drop at the 89800 line, plunging to around 85000 before a weak rebound, with an overall decline of nearly 4800 points. The current price hovers around 86000, undergoing oscillation and repair. Friends who followed the strategy and set short positions yesterday have perfectly grasped this downward space, achieving precise harvesting once again!

From a technical perspective, on the 4-hour level, the price has broken through the lower Bollinger Band, and the Bollinger Bands are overall opening downward. After breaking the band, there has been no strong pullback, still under pressure near the lower band; the MACD indicator's death cross structure continues, and the green momentum bars are still expanding, indicating that bearish forces have not yet exhausted; although the KDJ three lines have entered the oversold zone, no effective golden cross signal has formed, and the rebound strength is expected to be limited in the short term, caution is needed for the market to test downward again.

Bitcoin: Short near 86500-86000, looking down to break 85000 then see 83000 line,
Altcoin: Short near 3030-2980, looking down to 2800-2750$BTC $ETH #加密市场观察

Today's script location and direction for the big pancake and second pancake are precisely targeted,
the US stock market also directly broke down after that, reaching the Zhiying position!
You just need to patiently wait, this is what it means to hold on! $BTC $ETH $SOL #ETH走势分析

The positions and directions of the scripts for today’s big pancake and second pancake are precisely targeted.
The market for US stocks also directly broke through and reached the Zhi Ying position!
Just need to wait patiently, this is what it means to hold on!

Gold's European session looks to retreat, with a direct short at the 4350 resistance level! The target is 4280!

On Friday night, the movement of gold directly created a roller coaster, with a big bullish candle surging to around 4360, followed by a sharp drop of 100 dollars, reaching the 4260 level at one point. I believe Friday night was another sleepless night for countless people. Those holding positions must have been shaken out, but judging by my script from last week, most should have adjusted to around 4320 dollars. That's also a decent space!

A new week has begun, and gold currently shows a bearish engulfing pattern on the four-hour chart. The top bullish candle completely covers the big bullish candle, which is a strong breakout. There was a rise in the early session, but the momentum is still insufficient. The rebound is still fleeting; downward movement is the main theme. The heavy pressure above remains unchanged, and the upper resistance is clearly in the 43450-4355 area, while the lower support is also obvious at 4270-4250. Personally, I think the chance of a retreat is greater, as there are signals indicating a short-term peak! Therefore, it would be more prudent to go short on the rebound!