💎 Core viewpoint
ZK Calculation track new star launched 10 days of air drop criticized as "fraud" + "dust", 1-hour RSI surged to 74 overbought, position volume increased by 34% in one day, 88% of chips locked in 10 addresses, VC cost $0.076 compared to FDV $369M enjoying 20 times premium, technical and public opinion double kill short-selling window has opened
Short selling execution plan
Entry range: $0.362-0.366 (near current price, 1-hour RSI > 74 confirmed)
Stop loss position: $0.372 (upper clearing area for short positions above $0.367 by 1.3%, to prevent triggering short-term rise)
Target position: Short-term target $0.345 (break down from the long position liquidation zone), medium-term target $0.31 (return to 1-hour SMA50), aggressive target $0.25 (if community FUD ferments, testing ATL around $0.191).
Risk-reward ratio: Short term 2.2:1, medium term 4.3:1 (excellent).
Position suggestion: Total capital 15%, use 3-5 times leverage, first position 50% at $0.365, add 30% at $0.37 if it spikes.
Risk warning.
Narrative hype risk: If major favorable developments occur in the ZK track (like a surge in ZK Rollup adoption after Ethereum upgrades), Cysic may follow the sector's rise. However, the current ZK computing market size is limited, so this risk is relatively low.
Positive cost rate: Binance funding rate +0.048% means a daily yield of 0.144%, which can partially offset price volatility risk, but if the position exceeds 1 week, attention should be paid to whether the rate turns negative.
Community sentiment reversal: If the team launches a 'compensation airdrop' or other favorable measures to quell the controversy, it may trigger a rebound in the short term, and a mobile stop-loss should be set to lock in profits.
Fundamentals: Airdrop controversy ignites trust crisis.
Cysic is a ZK (zero-knowledge proof) computing infrastructure project, launching TGE on December 11, 2025, focusing on providing hardware acceleration and validator networks for ZK Rollup, having secured $18 million in financing from 12 institutions including Polychain Capital, OKX Ventures, and HashKey Capital.
Airdrop disaster: After the airdrop went live on December 12, social media was filled with negative comments such as 'scam,' 'dust,' and 'greedy team.' Users participating in the 3-6 month testnet received tokens worth 'McDonald's wages,' triggering strong dissatisfaction. The community questions the team for using a large number of multi-signature wallets to manipulate airdrop distribution, with the official explanation being 'incentive plan testing multi-signature,' which has not quelled the doubts.
Manipulation allegations: External reports detail token clusters (12-20% supply concentrated in newly created addresses), financial fraud (actual income $150K vs. claimed $6M), founder withdrawing $4.45M in 2024-2025, among other allegations. Multiple KOLs like Morsy and Crypto_Painter clearly point out manipulative behavior, with one contributor stating they only received $500 for 6 months of work. This trust crisis will suppress coin prices in the long term, as retail investors are reluctant to buy into 'scam projects.'
Valuation analysis: VC 20 times premium.
Current price $0.366, FDV $369M (total 1 billion), market cap $58.65M, circulation rate 16.08% (160.8M). $18 million financing corresponds to 23.62% of investor shares, with VC average cost around $0.076. However, considering early round discounts, seed round costs may be as low as $0.018-0.025, meaning VCs have already made 18-36 times profit at $0.366.
FDV comparison: ZK computing track comparison projects Risc Zero (valuation $1.5 billion), =nil; Foundation (financing $22 million). Cysic launches with a $369M FDV, which seems 'reasonable,' but compared to actual product progress (only in testnet phase, mainnet not launched), it is clearly overvalued.
Investor share 23.62% sets a 12-month cliff + 12 months linear unlock, meaning **starting December 2026, approximately 19.7 million tokens will be released each month** (236.2M/12), equivalent to 12% of the current circulation, posing significant supply pressure.
Chip concentration: Top 10 addresses hold 88%.
On-chain data shows 88.14% concentrated in the top 10 addresses, far exceeding a healthy distribution (usually 50-70%), indicating extremely low retail participation, with market liquidity completely controlled by a few large whales. The top address holds 21.84% of the total (218M), with no known exchange or VC label, possibly the project team's wallet.
Exchanges like Bitget account for less than 1%, combined with market makers usually holding 10-20% speculation, retail investors actually hold less than 10%. Once VCs take action, the buying power is severely insufficient. Although VCs have a 12-month cliff (until December 2026), portions such as community (35%), treasury (18%), and team (12.11%) have been partially unlocked, and there is still short-term selling pressure risk.
Technical analysis: 1-hour RSI 74 overbought + OI surged 34%.
Multi-cycle indicators (2025-12-21 11:12 UTC): 1-hour RSI 74.25 (overbought threshold 70), 4-hour RSI 67.1 (close to overbought), daily neutral. 1-hour level RSI >75 is usually a short-term top signal, historically the probability of retracing below 60 exceeds 80%.
Price far exceeds moving averages: Current $0.366 is above 1-hour EMA12 ($0.344), EMA26 ($0.330), SMA50 ($0.308), with divergence rates of +6.4%, +10.9%, +18.8%. Although it is below the long-term daily moving average, short-term overbought is evident.
MACD bullish but momentum weakening: 1-hour MACD histogram +0.0035 (positive but small), 4-hour +0.0078, indicating that bullish momentum exists but has not formed an accelerated upward trend. If the histogram turns negative, it will confirm the formation of a top.
Contract data: Open interest +34% overheating.
Open interest totals $27.90M, surging +34.23% in 24 hours, Binance OI $11.63M (+12%), BingX $7.33M (+205%). A single-day OI growth exceeding 30% is usually a signal of a top or bottom reversal, combined with price increase + RSI overbought, it indicates top characteristics.
Funding rates are all positive: Binance +0.0048% (extremely high), BingX +0.0035%, Bitget/Bybit/Gate +0.005%, indicating that bulls pay interest to bears every 8 hours. Binance's rate of 0.048% is equivalent to an annualized 52.5%, which is an extreme bullish sign and often signals a reversal.
Liquidation distribution: $430K long position liquidation accumulates at the $0.324 level below, and breaking down will trigger a chain reaction. Above $0.367 there is $4.4K short position, with the current price $0.366 close to that position, limiting short-term upside.
$CYS #加密市场观察
