According to Polymarket, market participants estimate the probability that ⚖️ the U.S. Supreme Court will rule Donald Trump's tariff policy illegal at around ~72%.
What this is:
collective risk assessment by traders;
quick indicator of expectations regarding court outcomes;
signal of high uncertainty surrounding trade policy.
What this is not:
not a court decision;
not a legal forecast;
not a guarantee of outcome.
Why this matters for markets
Tariffs = inflationary factor. Their cancellation reduces pressure on prices and supply chains.
Less inflationary risks → more room for softer Fed policy.
Risk-on sentiment. Stocks and crypto usually react positively to easing trade tensions.
Context and nuances
Prediction markets react faster than official comments, but can be volatile.
The 72% probability reflects the current balance of bets, which changes with new news.
Even in the case of a negative decision for tariffs, implementation and appeals can stretch the effect over time.
Conclusion from @MoonMan567
This is not a verdict, but a market signal: participants are pricing in a heightened chance of legal review of tariffs. For the macro, this is moderately positive - reducing inflationary risks and supporting risk-on, but official judicial steps remain decisive.
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