Summary of this week's silver trends ➕ next week's operation guide [call to action]
This week, silver shows a strong upward breakthrough and high-level oscillation as the core rhythm, with a cumulative increase of over 115% this year, entering a stage of long and short game after reaching a historical high.
Oscillation and accumulation (12.15-12.16): At the beginning of the week, relying on the narrow range of 63.0-64.0, supported by the residual heat of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations and the weakness of the US dollar index, bulls gradually gathered, and trading volume moderately increased, accumulating momentum for subsequent breakthroughs. During this period, the lowest dipped to 62.70, without breaking the key upward trend line.
Violent surge (12.17): A sudden big bullish candlestick appeared during the day, with a single-day increase of nearly 4%, as the price quickly broke through the previous oscillation range upper edge of 65.5 from the 64.5 line, reaching a historical peak of 66.86. The driving logic concentrated on an explosion—global silver supply and demand gap expanded to a historical record of 3200 tons, COMEX inventory dropped to a fifteen-year low of 1.38 tons, combined with a surge in silver demand for photovoltaic/new energy vehicles (increased by 22% and 35% year-on-year, respectively), institutional funds and ETF holdings have increased for seven consecutive months, driving the breakthrough.
High-level correction (12.18-12.19): After hitting a high, large-scale profit-taking was triggered, with intraday capital outflow reaching $280 million, and the price fluctuated around 65.0, dipping to a low of 64.25 on 12.19 before rebounding quickly, ultimately closing at 65.46. The weekly line formed a 'propeller' shape with a long upper shadow, reflecting the coexistence of short-term overbought pressure and bullish support.
Bullish: After the Fed confirms the easing cycle post-December rate cuts, the US dollar index continues to weaken; global central bank silver purchases have doubled year-on-year, and the People's Bank of China has accumulated 3,600 tons over the past seven months; Peru's mining strikes (daily production cut of 12 tons) and Mexico's export tax increase exacerbate supply disruptions.
Bearish: The daily RSI indicator enters the overbought range, and a high deviation rate triggers technical correction; the December COMEX silver futures concentrated delivery period is approaching, with near-month contract positions dropping by 30%, tightening liquidity amplifies volatility; gold-linked corrections lead to some funds reducing their safe-haven holdings.
Next week needs core focus
Federal Reserve officials are speaking intensively (including governors and regional Fed chairs), the release of the US economic beige book, and we need to be vigilant about the 'hawkish turn' correcting rate cut expectations—if officials emphasize inflation stickiness or economic resilience, it may trigger a rebound in the dollar and suppress silver prices.
US durable goods orders (reflecting industrial demand strength, directly related to silver's industrial properties), initial jobless claims (reflecting labor market tightness, affecting rate cut expectations), if data exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the logic of the 'Fed delaying rate cuts.'
Track the progress of the Peru mining strike (which has lasted for more than two weeks) and the rhythm of Mexico's export tax implementation. If supply disruptions escalate further, it will intensify the expectation of shortages under low inventory conditions.
Pay attention to the global photovoltaic giants' expansion plans (institutions predict that silver demand for photovoltaics will increase by 15% year-on-year in 2026), with industrial demand increments being the core fundamental support for medium to long-term increases.
Changes in non-commercial net long positions in COMEX silver, and changes in the holdings of the largest silver ETF globally. If positions continue to increase, it confirms bullish consensus; if there is a reduction, we need to be vigilant about the weakening short-term trend.
The situation in the Middle East (conflict between Israel and Houthi forces), global geopolitical hotspots, although silver's safe-haven attribute is weaker than gold, it may still benefit passively in extreme situations.
Next week coincides with the Christmas holiday, and the global financial market trading volume will significantly shrink, and a decline in liquidity may lead to 'small funds causing large fluctuations,' necessitating precautions against abnormal gap risks.
In the medium to long-term trend, the price remains above the 5, 10, and 20-week moving averages, with the moving averages in a bullish arrangement, and the weekly MACD golden cross continues, maintaining high momentum bars. The medium to long-term bullish logic remains intact.
This week has produced a 'propeller' candlestick, and there is a slight divergence in volume (price hitting new highs but trading volume not expanding synchronously), we need to pay attention to the 'propeller halfway point' (around 65.20) gains and losses—if it stands firm, it will be an 'upward propeller', continuing to be bullish; if it breaks down, it may trigger a deeper correction.
In the short-term trend, after the price breaks through the previous fluctuation range, it forms a 'high-level fluctuation platform' at historical highs. The 5-day moving average (around 65.80) and the 10-day moving average (around 64.80) form a short-term support zone. Although the RSI indicator is in the overbought range, there are no clear top divergence signals. During the surge, volume expands, and during the correction, volume shrinks, in line with the characteristics of 'consolidation after healthy growth,' and there is a strong willingness to support bullish positions.
Resistance level:
Short-term resistance: 67.5-68.0
Strong resistance: 68.5-69.0
Extreme resistance: 70.0 (triggers trend funds to chase long positions)
Support range:
Short-term support: 66.0-66.5
Strong support: 64.5-65.0
Key defense: near this week's low of 63.0-63.84
Suggestions for conservative investors:
Wait for a correction to stabilize in the 64.5-65.0 range, then lightly test long positions.
Stop loss: below 63.84
First target 67.5-68.0, after reaching reduce positions by 50%, move remaining stop loss to 66.0, betting on 68.5-69.0.
Aggressive investors:
If the price holds above 66.5, small positions can be chased.
Stop loss: below 65.80
The target is directly aimed at 67.5-68.0, if broken, hold until 68.5-69.0, if not broken, take profits in time and do not cling to battles.
Do not blindly chase prices above 68.0.
If Federal Reserve officials release hawkish statements and the dollar rebounds sharply, we need to decisively reduce positions and prioritize profit protection.#比特币流动性 #美国非农数据超预期 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH $BNB
