As of December 21, 2025, the core news and views regarding the price trend of ETH in 2026 (categorized by driving forces, all information sourced from recent industry reports):
1. Institutional Leaders' Predictions (High Popularity)
• Arthur Hayes (Founder of BitMEX): Institutions view ETH and L2 as core settlement layers, the explosion of stablecoins resonates with institutional accumulation, predicting ETH will reach $20,000 by the end of 2026, and 50 ETH could become a million-dollar asset (BeInCrypto, December 16).
• Tom Lee (Fundstrat): If BTC reaches $250,000 by 2026, ETH/BTC returning to an average of 0.10 corresponds to $25,000; if it returns to the 2021 peak of 0.25, ETH could reach $62,500 (Coin Circle Network, December 8).
• Neutral predictions from mainstream institutions: Dongfang Caifu Network summarizes institutional views, with a reasonable range for ETH in 2026 at $3,700–$7,800; InvestingHaven expects the ETF-driven price to drop to $5,515 by mid-2026 (December 9).
II. Technology and Ecosystem Drivers (Core Catalysts)
• Fusaka Upgrade: Block data expansion completed in December, L2 costs reduced, TPS improved, market expects a rebound to $3,500–$5,800 in early 2026, breaking $7,000 mid-year; if technical issues arise, it may drop to $2,500 (CoinWorld, December 3/4).
• On-chain cycle signals: ETH reaches the 'whale cost benchmark' (100,000+ ETH holding wallet realization price); historically, this signal often starts long bull markets; analysts indicate the current pattern is highly similar to the two previous bull market initiations, expecting a breakout in 2026 (CoinCircle, December 14).
• ETF and Staking: The market bets on the approval of the U.S. ETH spot ETF in early 2026, with strong expectations of capital inflow; the increase in staking rates and expansion of RWA strengthen the deflation narrative, attracting 'interest + price increase' type funds (CoinWorld, December 3).
III. Macroeconomic and Financial Aspects (Key Variables)
• Fed Rate Cut Cycle: Clear expectations of liquidity easing in 2026; in historical rate cut cycles, ETH has surged over 400%; institutions like State Street are expanding ETH on-chain funds, narrowing the funding flow gap with BTC (Toutiao, December 12).
• Large whales and institutions increasing holdings: BitMine and others are accumulating ETH at historically high rates; on-chain data shows whales made large purchases before the Fusaka upgrade (96,000+ ETH), supporting the upward trend in 2026 (CoinWorld, December 4).
IV. Risk and Pullback Expectations
• Tightening regulation, upgrading failures, macroeconomic recession, or the Fed turning hawkish may lead to a price drop to $2,400–$2,600 in 2026 (CoinWorld, December 3).
• Short-term volatility risk: Analysts warn that after the upgrade, due to 'buy the news, sell the fact', prices may briefly drop to $2,600–$2,900 (CoinWorld, December 4).
V. Key Time Nodes
• Early 2026: ETF approval window, ecosystem validation after Fusaka upgrade, affecting the first half's trends.
• Mid-2026: Large-scale application of L2, RWA explosion, and compliance of staking yields driving price upward.
• End of 2026: Changes in risk appetite before the U.S. election may trigger extreme market conditions.$BTC $ETH $BNB #ETH走势分析 
