Short-term holders have been in negative dynamics for almost four months in a row. Simply put, a significant portion of those who bought into the market in recent months are now holding positions at a loss. This is an important point for newcomers: it is the short-term participants who most often increase selling pressure during periods of uncertainty.
An additional signal of tension — the RSI index for Bitcoin is approaching lows not seen in the last three years. This speaks less of a 'guaranteed reversal' and more of an exhaustion of momentum: the market has been under pressure for a long time and is not demonstrating sustainable demand.
Situation with altcoins
Altcoins continue to look weaker than the market as a whole, which is directly related to the lack of liquidity. After the events of early October, the situation has noticeably worsened:
— the Total2 capitalization has decreased by approximately 36% since the beginning of October;
— if we exclude the top 10 assets, the decline reaches about 46% in just three months.
In this context, only about 3% of altcoins on Binance are trading above their 200-day moving average. This is historically low and a direct reflection of the fact that investors now prefer to protect capital rather than enter high-risk assets.
It is important to understand: such periods feel maximally uncomfortable and psychologically heavy. At the same time, they often lay the foundation for future movements. But it is also worth considering that such a state can last for a long time, especially if the market enters a prolonged phase of weakness.
Long-term structural shift
Against the backdrop of current weakness, a long-term perspective from Grayscale is interesting. According to their assessment, tokenized assets today account for about 0.01% of the global stock and bond market, but by 2030, this figure could potentially increase by approximately 1000 times. The main beneficiaries of such a transformation are named as Ethereum, BNB, Solana, and Avalanche, while Chainlink plays a key role in the transmission and verification of data.
Conclusion
Short-term, the market remains under pressure: weakness of holders, low liquidity in altcoins, and lack of confident demand. For newcomers, it is important not to seek quick solutions and not to try to guess the bottom. In such periods, understanding the context plays a key role: the market can remain weak longer than expected, but it is precisely in these phases that conditions for the next major movements are formed.
