Over the past week, the Fed's balance has increased by 17.7 billion dollars. This does not mean the launch of stimulating policies, but shows that the regulator is actively managing liquidity in the system.
What the representatives of the Fed are saying
Miran
Advocates for a faster path to the neutral interest rate and suggests looking not at past data but at the economy of 2027. Also notes the increasing role of stablecoins, particularly due to foreign demand, which strengthens dollar liquidity.
Williams
Believes that the Fed's policy has already shifted to neutral. Predicts inflation of 2.5% in 2026 and a return to the target of 2% in 2027. Emphasizes that current asset purchases are not QE and are not aimed at long-term rate cuts.
Waller
Notes that the labor market allows for continued rate cuts without haste. The Fed's balance sheet is at a comfortable level, and new asset purchases are not seen as stimulus. Also points out that stablecoins may increase demand for the dollar, and AI does not appear to be a bubble.
Goolsbee
Allows for a significant rate cut in the future if inflation confidently moves towards 2%. However, opposes premature steps without confirming data.
Bostic
Supported the latest rate cut but believes the current policy is close to optimal. In the baseline scenario for 2026, does not anticipate further cuts and expects GDP growth of about 2.5%.
Market expectations for the Fed rate
The market still anticipates a slow and cautious rate-cutting cycle in 2026, with long pauses between decisions.
What this means in simple terms
The Fed is gradually moving away from tight policy but is not rushing into aggressive actions. The balance is growing technically rather than within the framework of stimulus. The main focus is on inflation and labor market stability.
Conclusion:
The tone remains moderately neutral with a slight bias. For the crypto market, this is not a direct growth driver but an important signal that pressure from monetary policy is gradually easing.
