On December 22, data from Alternative shows:
Crypto Fear and Greed Index: 25
Yesterday: 20
Status: Extreme Fear
The numbers are recovering, but the sentiment hasn't changed.
This precisely indicates that the market is not repairing confidence, but is being forced to stay quiet.
First, let's break down this 25 minutes: it's not an emotion.
The Fear Index is not arbitrary; it consists of six components:
Volatility (25%)
Transaction Volume (25%)
Social Heat (15%)
Market Survey (15%)
BTC Market Share (10%)
Google Hot Words (10%)
When you put these six items together, you will find a key conclusion:
This is a panic of 'low participation willingness + small fluctuations'.
It's not 'crash-style' panic.
In other words:
People do not dare to act but have not run away.
Two, why is 'panic exists, but prices haven't collapsed' even more dangerous?
Many people only recognize one form of panic:
Plummeting + Volume + Emotional outburst.
But not now.
The current state is:
Prices are stagnant.
Transaction volume is shrinking.
Socially cold.
But the panic value hangs at 25 and does not drop.
This often corresponds to a certain situation in history:
Retail investors have lost their emotions.
But the main force has not given direction.
This is the most grinding phase.
Three, compare it with the 'abnormal signals' you have seen recently.
Combine the panic index with other data you have seen in the past two days:
BTC has been continuously net outflowing from CEX.
OG whale $700 million position remains unchanged.
Institutional perspective: It's not the top, it's the accumulation period.
Small coins are repeatedly liquidated.
Alpha is singled out and pulled.
If it really is 'the market is about to collapse', what would you see?
BTC flows back to exchanges.
Large investors are reducing positions.
Leverage is fully unwinding.
The panic index has directly dropped below 10.
But not now.
This indicates one thing:
Panic mainly exists in the 'emotional layer'.
And not the 'capital layer'.
Four, why does panic 'stick' at the 20–30 range?
The reason is simple, but cruel:
① Macro does not give sugar.
Interest rate cuts have been postponed.
Japan's interest rate hike expectations.
Policy has entered the observation period.
② The market does not give you 'quick money'.
There is no overall market.
No sector rotation.
There are only sporadic structural opportunities.
③ Retail investors have been trained to not dare to act.
So a state emerges:
Neither daring to buy nor wanting to sell.
This is the reason why the panic index slowly rises but remains in extreme panic areas.
Five, what is the real meaning for the upcoming market?
Here are three very practical judgments for you:
1️⃣ This is not a 'bottom signal'.
Extreme panic ≠ immediate rebound.
It only indicates that 'downward space is limited by emotions'.
2️⃣ The real market must start from 'no one discusses'.
When social heat is low, Google hot words are cold, and transaction volume shrinks,
Any incremental capital will be magnified.
3️⃣ The most dangerous people are those who are still leveraging now.
In the 'low emotion + no direction' phase,
Leverage does not amplify profits, it amplifies mistakes.
Six, one sentence tells you how to use the 'panic index' now.
Don't treat it as a 'buy/sell button'.
Treat it as an environmental indicator.
This light currently tells you only one thing:
The market does not lack money, but lacks a 'reason to make money move'.
But before reasons emerge:
Prices will grind.
Emotions will cool down.
Panic will hang there and not go away.
The last sentence, give you a calm judgment 💬
When the panic index stays long at 20–30,
And the market does not continue to plunge.
That is often not because everyone is bearish,
But because —
The chips have been taken away.
But the direction has not been allowed to be announced.
Real changes,
It has never happened on the most panicked day.
But is in —
When everyone is too lazy to panic. $BTC
