Galaxy Digital research director Alex Thorn stated that predicting Bitcoin for 2026 is exceptionally difficult due to macro uncertainties, political risks, and imbalances in market momentum exacerbating chaos. Although a short-term range fluctuation or 'flat' scenario may occur, the company maintains a long-term bullish outlook, expecting it to reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. The signals from the options market are confusing: traders assign similar probabilities to prices of $70K or $130K mid-2026, and $50K or $250K by the end of the year, reflecting readiness for extreme volatility. Volatility is decreasing: long-term volatility is lowering, institutional strategies (such as covered options) suppress extreme prices, and the volatility smile curve provides protection on the downside more than on the upside, as Bitcoin gradually matures into a macro asset. Thorn believes that structural institutional adoption (such as being included in standard investment portfolios) rather than short-term fluctuations will drive long-term value. There are short-term downside risks, but continued inflow of institutional funds may provide support. Bitcoin in 2026 is full of uncertainties, what do you think?
