Today, the hottest news in the cryptocurrency world is that the U.S. House of Representatives is set to provide tax incentives for cryptocurrencies! Bipartisan lawmakers are drafting a bill that not only aims to exempt regulated stablecoin transactions from capital gains tax but also plans to defer taxation on staking and mining rewards. As soon as the news broke, BTC jumped 2%, and the community was filled with cheers of 'the compliant bull market is coming!' Wait! Don't get too excited! As an analyst who has been in the cryptocurrency space for 8 years and survived 3 crashes, I can responsibly say: there are 2 deadly traps hidden in this favorable news; if you rush in without understanding, you are highly likely to buy at a high position!
Let me first give you a simple interpretation of this bill: In simple terms, the U.S. wants to set 'rules + reduce burdens' for the crypto industry. Tax exemption on stablecoin transactions means that the cost of arbitrage trading for institutions has decreased; the delay in taxation on staking and mining rewards can attract more people to participate in network validation. This seems like a huge advantage, but there are two prerequisites that everyone must pay attention to: First, the bill is still in the drafting stage; whether it can be passed and when it will be passed are unknowns. The crypto world has a rule that 'good news turning into bad news' is common, and the market has already anticipated this expectation. When it truly passes, it may be the time for institutions to offload. Second, only 'regulated' stablecoins are tax-exempt; those unqualified and unendorsed small stablecoins not only are not exempt from tax but may also be subject to strict regulation.
Next is the pitfall guide, and these two pitfalls must be avoided! The first pitfall is to blindly chase high stablecoin-related concept coins. Many projects are currently riding the 'compliant stablecoin' trend, claiming they will cooperate with U.S. regulatory agencies, but 90% of these projects are vaporware. Remember, only those stablecoin-related ecosystem projects that have obtained U.S. regulatory approval and have transparent reserves are worth paying attention to; others can be directly passed on. The second pitfall is not to go crazy with leveraged staking just because of 'tax exemption on staking'. The bill mentions 'delayed taxation', not 'tax exemption', and it only applies to compliant staking projects. Those high-yield, unregulated staking platforms will not only miss out on benefits but may also be shut down due to tightening policies, resulting in the loss of principal.
Regarding market trends, my view is: Short-term favorable stimuli are unlikely to change the oscillating pattern; looking long-term, compliance is the major direction, but the process will be very tortuous. From a technical perspective, BTC is currently facing resistance around $87,000, which is the mid-line of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands. Breaking through this level is not easy. If it can maintain above $87,800 (Ichimoku baseline), it may test the $90,000 mark; if it cannot hold, it is likely to retrace to $85,000 to seek support. Ethereum is currently struggling around $2,840, with strong resistance at $2,915, making it difficult to break through in the short term.
Many friends know that I accurately predicted the correction after the unlocking of ETH staking in 2023, advising everyone to reduce positions at $3,800 to avoid the subsequent drop to $2,000. This time is no different; don’t let short-term good news cloud your judgment. The current market environment does not support a bull market; the opportunities brought by compliance are structural, not widespread. Next, I will compile a list of 'U.S. compliant crypto projects'; follow me, and I will send it directly to everyone during the next share.
The last reminder for everyone: The good news in the crypto world has never come from nowhere, but is a sieve that filters out the chives. Only by understanding the logic behind the policies can one reap the benefits; otherwise, one will only become someone else's exit strategy. If you find this content useful, please like and follow to stay on track, and share your thoughts on this tax bill in the comments. I will select 3 fans for a free analysis of their holdings!
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