Recently, many fans have been asking me in the background: 'With the economy in such chaos in 2026, will the crypto market crash?' To be honest, seeing the duration of the U.S. Treasury yield inversion makes me a bit uneasy. Today, I will analyze for you how the 'thunder' of the 2026 global economy will impact ETH and the entire crypto market, and how we can avoid these risks in advance.
First, let me explain a key point: the inversion of U.S. Treasury yields, simply put, means that short-term Treasury rates are higher than long-term rates, which is a strong warning signal of economic recession. Historically, every time this occurs, there is a high probability of an economic crisis in the following 1-2 years. This inversion has persisted for a long time now, and with the job market starting to adjust, consumer credit data fluctuating, and the midterm elections acting as a 'political variable', the economic environment in 2026 is simply 'hellish'.
Some may say: "Wasn't the crypto market previously disconnected from the economy?" That's old news! I read an analysis report from Shaanxi Legal Network, and now the correlation between the crypto market and macroeconomics has become absurdly strong: In 2023, Silicon Valley Bank went bankrupt, U.S. bank stocks plummeted, Bitcoin dropped first and then rebounded due to interest rate cut expectations; in 2022, during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the S&P 500 fell by 3%, and Bitcoin directly dropped over 8%. Not to mention that institutions are now involved, and their funds will flexibly switch between stocks and crypto assets. Any economic disturbance will certainly affect the crypto market.
Here comes my core view: The volatility of the crypto market in 2026 will be greater than in 2025, but there will not be a "total collapse" like in 2022. This is because ETH now has regulatory backing, and there is support from the expectation of a spot ETF, making the bottom more solid than before. However, this does not mean there won't be a correction; when economic data is poor, funds will prioritize cash and gold, and crypto assets will certainly be sold off.
Advice for ordinary players to avoid pitfalls: First, don't go all in! Divide your position into three parts: one part for long-term holding of mainstream assets, one part for short-term trading, and one part as cash reserve. Second, closely monitor U.S. non-farm payroll data and CPI data, as these two directly affect Federal Reserve policies, which in turn impact the crypto market. Third, avoid those small coins without practical applications; during economic downturns, these coins drop the fastest and are most likely to go to zero.
What economic variable are you most worried about in 2026? Is it the national debt issue or the job market? Follow me @链上标哥 so you don't get lost! I will continue to track the impact of economic data on the crypto market.
