Gold breaks new highs again, will silver's rise to 70 also be a breakthrough within reach? Zhuoyuan 12.22 Silver Insights
News: The Federal Reserve's rate cut in December has landed, with expectations for continued rate cuts into 2026 strengthening, and the dollar index weakened to 98.6, boosting the appeal of non-yielding assets. Supply and demand & inventory: COMEX inventory at a fifteen-year low, significant delivery pressure; demand for silver in photovoltaics/new energy vehicles/AI surges, with a gap of about 95 million ounces expected by 2025; strikes in Peru and increased tariffs in Mexico tighten supply further. Geopolitical risk: Attacks on Russian oil tankers in Ukraine, increased U.S. sanctions against Venezuela, raising safe-haven buying needs. Funds and market: Continuous inflow into silver ETFs, China Investment Silver LOF adjusts subscription limits today (Class A to 500 yuan, Class C to 500 yuan), on-site premiums exceed 44%, indicating risks of overheating sentiment. Policy and regulation: COMEX raises silver futures margin by 10%, China upgrades silver to strategic resource, implementing export license management starting January 2026, further tightening supply expectations.
Silver suggestions: Trend: The main upward wave continues, but overbought and crowded trading intensifies volatility. Resistance: $69.5 (intraday high), $70 (round number). Support: $65-66 (trendline), $61 (20-EMA).
Operational suggestion: Do not chase highs. Lightly short if rebounding to $69.5-70, stop loss at $70.5; if it stabilizes at $65-66 during a pullback, consider small long positions, stop loss at $64.
Medium to long-term: The trend is still in place, but wait for pullbacks to gradually position, keeping the position control within 30%, and ensure risk control.
