Gold has once again broken new highs. Will silver's rise to 70 also be a nearby breakthrough? Zhuoyuan 12.22 Silver Insights

News: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in December, with a continued rate cut expectation into 2026, and the US dollar index weakening to 98.6, enhancing the attractiveness of non-yielding assets. Supply and Demand & Inventory: COMEX inventory is at a 15-year low, with significant delivery pressure; the use of silver in photovoltaics/new energy vehicles/AI is surging, with a projected gap of about 95 million ounces by 2025; strikes in Peru and increased tariffs in Mexico are tightening supply further. Geopolitical Hedge: Attacks on Russian tankers in Ukraine and increased US sanctions on Venezuela are boosting demand for safe-haven assets. Funds and Market: Silver ETFs continue to see inflows, with the State Investment Silver LOF adjusting the subscription limit today (A class to 500 yuan, C class to 500 yuan), and the on-site premium exceeding 44%, indicating a risk of overheating sentiment. Policy and Regulation: COMEX raises silver futures margin by 10%, China upgrades silver to a strategic resource, implementing export license management starting January 2026, and supply expectations are further tightening.

Silver Recommendations: Trend: The main uptrend continues, but overbought conditions and crowded trading are increasing volatility. Resistance: $69.5 (intraday high), $70 (round number). Support: $65-66 (trend line), $61 (20-EMA).

Trading Recommendations: Do not chase highs. If it rebounds to $69.5-70, consider light short positions with a stop loss at $70.5; if it pulls back to $65-66 and stabilizes, a small long position can be taken with a stop loss at $64.

Long to medium term: The trend is still in place, but wait for a pullback to gradually position, keeping the allocation within 30%, and ensure good risk control.