Family! When gold breaks new highs and floods the market, I advise you not to just drool over gold—silver, the dark horse, is about to surge past the $70 mark, and the value of this wave of行情 may even surpass that of gold! Is someone already itching to chase the highs? Hold on! As someone who has been in the market for 8 years, I can say that this rise in silver is not just a simple following of gold; the logic behind it is astonishingly solid.
Let me be clear: I believe silver can approach the $70 mark, and the core reason is the "macro + supply and demand + policy" triple resonance; without any one of these, we wouldn't be where we are today. From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December is already a done deal, and more importantly, the expectation of continuous rate cuts in 2026 is fully realized! This has directly caused the dollar index to plummet to a low of 98.6. It's important to know that silver, being a non-interest-bearing asset, is naturally an "enemy" of the dollar; when the dollar weakens, silver's attractiveness naturally increases—money sitting in the bank yields less and less, so it's better to pivot towards silver, which has the potential for price increases. This is the simplest logic of funds.
Looking at the supply and demand side, this is the 'trump card' for silver's rise. COMEX silver inventories have fallen to a 15-year low, and the delivery pressure is outrageous, simply put, the amount of spot silver available for trading in the market is decreasing. And what about the demand side? Now, the demand for silver in high-growth sectors like photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and AI has surged. I checked the latest data, and the supply-demand gap for silver in 2025 is around 95 million ounces, which is an astronomical figure! To make matters worse, there are still supply issues; the strike in Peru has not ended, and Mexico has raised tariffs, tightening the already strained supply significantly. This 'supply and demand imbalance' makes it hard not to raise prices.
There are also favorable policies at the policy level that many people may not have noticed. COMEX has increased the margin for silver futures by 10%, which seems like a cooling measure, but from another perspective, it indicates that market volatility is too high, and regulators are paying attention; more importantly, China has upgraded silver to a strategic resource, and from January 2026, export license management will be implemented, which means that silver exports will be restricted in the future, and global supply will tighten further. These three layers of logic combined mean that the upward trend in silver actually has solid support.
However, I must remind everyone that there are already signs of overheating in the silver market. Although silver ETFs are still experiencing inflows, the National Investment Silver LOF has adjusted its subscription limit, setting both Class A and Class C at 500 yuan, and the on-market premium has exceeded 44%, indicating that many retail investors are chasing high prices, and the market has become somewhat irrational. Therefore, my operational advice is very clear: absolutely do not chase high prices! If it rebounds to the range of $69.5 to $70, you can try shorting with a small position, setting a stop-loss at $70.5; if it stabilizes after a pullback to $65-66, then you can go long with a small position, setting a stop-loss at $64. In the medium to long term, although the trend is still in place, you must wait for a pullback to gradually enter the market, controlling your position to within 30%, with risk control always being the top priority.
Finally, I have a question for everyone: do you think silver can successfully break through the $70 mark? If it breaks through, will you choose to chase high prices or wait and see? Share your views in the comments section and follow me@链上标哥 , so you don't get lost! I will continuously track the changes in the silver market and share my operational thoughts at the first opportunity. If you miss this round of interpretation, you may miss a precise opportunity to avoid pitfalls!
