Brothers! Just brushed up on the news that BitMine has increased its holdings by 13,412 ETH, spending 40.61 million dollars. Isn't it exciting, making you want to follow the whales to buy at the bottom? Hold on! As an analyst with 8 years of experience in the cryptocurrency circle and having accurately predicted 3 bull-bear transitions, I can responsibly say: this news is not a signal to make money, but a high-risk warning! In this article, I will explain everything clearly, telling you which deadly pits to avoid and the real answer to future market trends!
First, let me give you a heart-wrenching set of data: According to on-chain monitoring, BitMine currently holds nearly 4 million ETH, with an average holding cost of 3,906 dollars, while the current price of ETH is only 2,868 dollars. The average price of this increase in holdings is about 3,182 dollars, which is still higher than the current price, meaning their floating loss has already exceeded 4.1 billion dollars! The more the whales lose, the more they buy; retail investors rush in after them, which is itself the most dangerous trap!
The first pitfall to avoid: blindly chasing after 'whale endorsements'. Many people think, 'Big institutions are buying, what do I have to fear?', but they forget that BitMine's capital scale and holding period are not on the same level as ours! It can withstand a floating loss of $4 billion and even earn 3.5%-5% annualized returns through staking ETH to supplement cash flow, while retail investors could be forcibly liquidated after a 10% pullback following a chase. Just two weeks ago, some fans rushed in following whale accumulation news, and now they are already down 20%. Isn't this bloody lesson enough?
The second pitfall to avoid: ignoring the underlying logic that 'increasing holdings ≠ bullish'. BitMine's core strategy is to acquire 5% of ETH circulation, creating an Ethereum treasury. Its accumulation is a long-term layout, not a short-term speculative signal! Just like last year when it increased its holdings from 0 to 3.6 million ETH, during which the ETH price dropped by 30%. This accumulation might also be aimed at achieving strategic goals, rather than believing that the current price is the bottom. Don't treat institutional 'strategic holdings' as your 'trading signals', otherwise you're betting your principal!
The third pitfall to avoid: only looking at a single message and ignoring macro and technical aspects. The current crypto market is greatly influenced by the Fed's policies, and although ETH has seen significant accumulation by whales, the funding rates in the derivatives market are still falling, with selling pressure at the $3000 level reaching $700 million. A single accumulation message cannot support a trend reversal; forcing an entry will only get you caught in the long-short battle!
Now, let me talk about my expectations for future trends, which are extremely clear and unambiguous: there will be an emotional rally in the short term for 1-3 days, likely testing the $3000-$3100 range, but it is absolutely impossible to break through the strong resistance level of $3200! The reason is simple: the decrease in circulation brought by whale accumulation is offset by the current floating loss selling pressure, and the market lacks incremental funds to support it. The mid-term will still maintain a fluctuation between $2700-$3200, and only when ETH stabilizes above the 100-day moving average at $3450, and the inflow of spot ETF funds increases for three consecutive days, can a real rebound potentially begin.
In the long term, I still remain optimistic about Ethereum. After all, whales continue to stake and accumulate, and the upcoming upgrade will enhance scalability, all of which are fundamentally positive. However, long-term opportunities do not mean one can buy recklessly in the short term; the real entry points must wait for directional choice after fluctuations, either chasing after a breakout above $3450 or stabilizing and bottoming out at $2700. The fluctuations in between are all 'trap for the greedy'!
My long-time fans know that I reminded everyone last month, 'When whale floating losses exceed $3 billion, accumulation is a trap.' Those who listened avoided a 15% pullback; I previously predicted that ETH would find support at $2800, which was spot on. Follow me for clear analysis, only providing actionable advice.
Finally, a reminder: the core of making money in the crypto space is 'when others panic, I stay rational; when others follow the trend, I observe'. This round of BitMine's accumulation should be observed, don't take action! If you want to know the specific entry points and stop-loss positions, follow me @链上标哥 , so you won't get lost!
