Family! Recently, when you opened the market software, were you almost driven emo by Ethereum? One moment it surged to $3100, seemingly about to break through, and the next moment it plummeted back to $2900. The back-and-forth of the long and short positions is more unpredictable than a couple's arguments! Many friends asked me, 'Buying at half-mountain and cutting losses at the lowest point.' Today, this article will directly lay bare the current market's most easily stepped-on pitfalls and conveniently explain the subsequent trend. Remember to like and save after reading, or you won't be able to find it next time!
First, let me introduce myself to new friends. I am not one of those mouthpiece analysts who only shout 'all in' or 'go all in'. Last year, before the Fusaka upgrade, I reminded everyone to position themselves in advance. Subsequently, Ethereum surged from $2300 to $3000, and friends who followed my rhythm at least made a profit of 30%. Last month, after the Federal Reserve made its statement, I immediately advised everyone to reduce their positions, successfully avoiding that 200-point pullback. This strength speaks for itself; just look at my past prediction records to know.
Returning to the current market situation, let me report the latest data: As of now, the price of Ethereum is $3024.51, up 1.74% in the past 24 hours, but down 3.28% over the past 7 days. The Fear and Greed Index is at 25, in the extreme fear range. This data combination reveals a key signal: market sentiment is extremely fragile, with both bulls and bears on the sidelines, making it easy to encounter traps like 'false bullish' and 'false bearish' at this time.
Let me focus on three pitfalls you must avoid! The first pitfall: Blindly chasing gains and cutting losses. Recently, many people have followed the trend to chase Ethereum's rebound and panicked to cut losses when it fell. I advise you to tattoo 'chasing gains and cutting losses' on your forehead as a warning! Currently, the $3000 level is a strong resistance level, and $2800 is a strong support level. Fluctuations between these two price points are normal; without clear breakout or breakdown signals, frequent trading will only result in losses due to fees and slippage. Remember, 'in a volatile market, watch more and act less' is a rule to live by.
The second pitfall: Believing in 'rumors.' Recently, there have been rumors in the community that 'certain institutions are going to make large purchases of Ethereum' and 'the Federal Reserve is going to significantly cut interest rates.' Many people believed these rumors and entered the market heavily, only to be trapped. I clearly tell you that the current market information is a mix of truth and falsehood; real positive and negative news will be reflected in technical analysis and official announcements. Policies from the Federal Reserve and upgrade announcements from the Ethereum Foundation are reliable information, while those 'insider news' and 'exclusive revelations' are 99% bait to exploit naive investors.
The third pitfall: Ignoring staking risks. Currently, the staking amount of Ethereum exceeds 32.4 million coins, and the inventory on exchanges is at a low level. Many people blindly stake, thinking that the staking returns are stable, but they overlook the risks of the unlocking period. If the market experiences a significant pullback later, the staked Ethereum cannot be sold in time to cut losses, which may lead to deep entrapment. My advice is to keep the staking ratio no more than 50% of your own position and choose reliable staking channels while avoiding those small platforms with abnormally high returns.
Let's talk about the subsequent trend. My personal view is very clear: short-term volatility to build a bottom, and long-term bullish but we need to wait for signals. From a technical perspective, the MACD indicator is still running below the zero axis, and the bearish momentum has not been fully released. The RSI indicator at 47.21 is in a neutral range without clear stabilization signals. In the short term, pay attention to the resistance level at $3000 and the support level at $2800. If it breaks through $3000 and stabilizes, it may push towards $3300 later; if it falls below $2800, it is likely to pull back to around $2600.
In the long run, the Ethereum Fusaka upgrade has increased Layer-2 data capacity and reduced transaction fees, laying a foundation for ecological landing, which is a real benefit. Moreover, although institutional funds have seen short-term outflows, the long-term layout trend has not changed. Actions from institutions like BlackRock are just short-term profit-taking, and they will likely flow back in later. However, it is important to note that the diversion of Layer-2 from mainnet transactions will bring certain pressure, which is a risk point that needs long-term attention.
Lastly, I remind everyone that the current market environment is complex, and you must control your positions well. Do not operate with full positions; leave yourself margin for error.
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