Family, who understands! I just put down my phone to use the restroom this morning, and when I came back and opened the market software, my pupils shook—ETH actually increased by 1.15% in 5 minutes! You have to know that in the current volatile market, not to mention more than 1 point in 5 minutes, even being able to stabilize 0.5% in an hour is considered strong. I dare say, there are definitely two types of people in front of the screen right now: one type is hitting their thighs and cursing, just having sold and missed out; the other type is sweating in their palms, holding a full position and unsure whether to take profits. As someone who has been watching the market for 8 years, today I will share with you the heart of the matter and analyze whether this lightning-fast rise is due to funds rushing in or a trap set by the main forces!
Let's get to the point by analyzing this wave of market from a technical perspective. Opening the 5-minute candlestick chart, it can be clearly seen that this wave of ETH's rise is not random; it consolidated horizontally in the 2780-2820 range for nearly 3 hours, a typical 'accumulation and consolidation' pattern. In terms of trading volume, the volume at the moment of the rise was 2.3 times the average volume of the previous 3 hours, showing a healthy pattern of volume and price increasing together, indicating that the buying is not fake, and real funds have entered to support. Looking at the indicators, the MACD had already formed a golden cross before the rise, and the momentum bar quickly surged from the negative zone. Although the RSI has slightly risen, it is still around 55, not reaching the overbought line of 70, which means there is still some room for short-term increases, and it will not immediately pull back.
Some may wonder why the price is rising now? This brings us to the market sentiment transmission effect. Last night, U.S. tech stocks collectively strengthened, and the Nasdaq index rose by 1.2%. The correlation between the crypto market and U.S. tech stocks has recently reached above 0.7, so the warm mood in the external market naturally transmits to ETH. Additionally, in terms of fund flow, in the past 24 hours, the net inflow of major funds into ETH reached 120 million USD. Particularly during this 5-minute surge, there were nearly 30 million USD in large buy orders, and most of these buy orders are long-term funds, not short-term speculative hot money—this can be seen from the depth chart, where buy orders are primarily concentrated below the support level of 2850, not chasing up at high levels.
At this point, some friends may ask: Should I chase now when I am out of position? If I am fully invested, should I take profits? My view is very clear: those out of position should not blindly chase the high. Although this wave of increase is healthy, there may be a demand for a pullback to 2830 in the short term. Wait for the pullback to confirm support before entering, as it poses lower risk. Those fully invested can hold on for now and set a trailing stop loss, for example, placing the stop loss at 2800. This way, you can protect your profits while following the trend. Remember, the core of making money in the crypto circle is not about 'catching every wave of increase,' but about 'protecting your capital and earning what you can understand.'
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