Family, the recent 'panorama' of the crypto world is too funny: on one side, retail investors are crying and shouting in the community, saying 'Bitcoin is doomed, the funds have all run away'; on the other side, whales are quietly 'making a fortune' on-chain, secretly accumulating and bottom-fishing. As an old analyst who has seen countless market fluctuations, I really want to advise everyone: don't be scared by superficial data, today I'll take you to uncover the 'trick' behind the 'decrease in capital inflow' and see what the whales are really up to.
Let's get to the point: to determine whether the decrease in capital inflow is a 'real drop' or a 'false drop', the core lies in two indicators - 'the主体 of capital outflow' and 'the destination of capital outflow'. From recent on-chain data, the outflowing funds mostly come from retail investors on small exchanges; after these funds flow out, they haven't been transferred to other crypto assets but have been directly withdrawn to over-the-counter wallets. In simple terms, 'retail investors are scared, they first take out their money to wait and see'. And what about the whales' funds? Most of them are transferred from large exchanges to their own cold wallets. This is not a 'sell-off', but a 'locking up' - the coins in cold wallets cannot be traded directly. Whales do this to stabilize market sentiment while avoiding having their holdings affected by market fluctuations.
Many people think that 'a reduction in capital inflow = the market will fall', which is actually a huge misunderstanding. Let me give you a historical example: In March 2020, Bitcoin plummeted due to the pandemic, and on-chain capital inflow weakened for half a month. At that time, retail investors were selling frantically, but what happened? The whales took the opportunity to accumulate, and then Bitcoin rose from over 4000 to over 60000. The current situation is very similar to that time: there is uncertainty in the macro economy, retail investor sentiment is panicking, capital inflow is weakening, but the whales are laying out positions against the trend. This shows that the market does not lack capital; rather, the capital is 'changing owners'—from retail investors to whales. Once retail sentiment stabilizes, the whales will drive up prices again, and then retail investors will chase in again, which is the 'cycle' of the market.
As for why the recovery of market sentiment takes months, let me break it down for you. First, the uncertainty of the macro economy needs time to resolve: the upcoming interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve and the recovery situation of the global economy, all of these will take 1-2 months to show clear signals. Second, the emotional recovery of retail investors takes time: this reduction in capital inflow has caused many retail investors to lose money, and to regain their trust in the market and invest again, it will take at least 2-3 months. Finally, the market needs to form a new consensus: currently, there are disagreements about the direction of Bitcoin, some are bullish, some are bearish, and only when the market forms a new consensus will capital flow back in on a large scale.
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