All cryptocurrency brothers pay attention! Today's news—U.S. households' stock holdings account for a higher percentage of net assets than real estate, marking the third time in the past 65 years—this is not an ordinary financial news flash, but a warning bell for all risk assets! As an analyst with 8 years of experience, who avoided the 2022 bear market and accurately predicted the 2023 rebound, I can confidently say: this signal's impact on the crypto market is more deadly than the Fed's interest rate hikes and more critical than ETF approvals. If we don't clarify the direction and avoid traps now, we are likely to be severely harvested by the market soon!
Let's be clear: this third asset allocation crossover is a long-term bear market signal that even the 'Big Short' Michael Burry has openly acknowledged! When were the last two times? The late 1960s and the late 1990s—the former was immediately followed by 10 years of stagflation, where all risk assets flattened; the latter directly burst the internet bubble, with the Nasdaq dropping 70%! Think about it, as an 'extremist' among risk assets, if the U.S. stock market enters a long-term bear market, can we stand aside? Absolutely impossible!
First, let me outline three dead pits that must be avoided, each of which can help you preserve your principal:
The first pit: chasing high prices of altcoins and air coins! There are still people in the market touting 'small coins doubling opportunities,' which is purely pushing fans into the fire pit! American households are moving money from stable real estate to stocks, indicating that market risk appetite has peaked. Once sentiment shifts, funds will flee high-risk assets wildly. Those altcoins without real applications and financial backing will end up with 'the fast runners losing less and the slow ones going to zero.' I've seen too many cases in 2022 of people holding altcoins waiting for a rebound, only to lose everything. If anyone advises you to chase small coins now, just blacklist them!
The second pit: high leverage bottom fishing! Many people think, 'Bitcoin has been falling for so long, it should bounce back,' entering the market with 5x or 10x leverage to bottom fish. But you forget that historically, after two asset crossings, the market has always been 'slow decline + sudden crash.' What seems like a bottom may just be a station during a downturn. The cruelty of leverage in the crypto market doesn't need me to elaborate; even a slight pullback can lead to liquidation, leaving you with nothing, so how can you talk about recovery? Listen to me, clear all leverage now and reduce your position to below 30%!
The third pit: ignoring the risks of liquidity contraction! The concentration of American household assets in stocks means that the entire market's funds will gravitate towards top assets, and funds in the crypto market will be diverted. It is very likely that we will see a situation where 'Bitcoin falls less, and altcoins fall more,' and some small coins may face a liquidity crisis of 'not being able to sell.' Don't think about 'selling after the rebound'; you need to actively clear your weak coins now, concentrating funds on core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which at least ensures that you can sell when you want!
Now let's talk about the future trend of the crypto market. My view is very clear: short-term fluctuations are building a top, medium-term is likely to face a deep correction, and long-term core assets still have opportunities, but we need to wait for the market to clear!
In the short term, 1-3 months, the market may still have fluctuations; after all, there are still many retail investors chasing high prices, and institutions are also using this opportunity to offload. But this kind of fluctuation is all 'temptation'; what seems like a lively market is actually accumulating energy for subsequent declines. I predict Bitcoin will likely fluctuate between $40,000 and $45,000; if it falls below the $40,000 support level, it will mark the beginning of a new round of decline!
The medium term, 3-12 months, is the most dangerous phase! Referring to the bear market trends after the last two asset crossings, once the US stock market starts to decline, it will lead to adjustments in global risk assets. The crypto market, as a high-volatility asset, is likely to decline even more than the US stock market; Bitcoin falling below $25,000 is not impossible, and altcoins may even face 'halving and then halving again.' This is not alarmist; it's the inevitable conclusion given by historical data. I have already started to gradually reduce positions for my core fans!
But there's no need to panic excessively; in the long run, the core logic of the crypto market hasn't changed; it just needs time to digest risks. Once this market clearing is completed, those projects with real technology and applications will still encounter new opportunities. What we need to do now is to 'survive,' preserve our principal, so we can bottom fish quality assets at the market's bottom.
Finally, let me say something heartfelt: in my years of experience, I've seen too many cases of bankruptcy due to ignoring macro signals and too many fans achieving wealth leaps through precise predictions. This signal, which occurs once every 65 years, is a watershed moment; those who can avoid the pitfalls will be able to wait for the next wave of market action.
Next, I will continue to track the trends in the US stock market, Federal Reserve policies, and the flow of funds in the crypto market. Follow me @链上标哥 , and don’t get lost!
