Bullish scenario (probability 60%):
The technical aspect is oversold and rebounding to the **$0.738-0.75 range. Trigger conditions include the price breaking through SMA50 ($0.716) confirmation, volume support, and the initiation of a repurchase plan providing continuous buying pressure.
Entry point suggestion >$0.716, stop loss set at $0.689, target $0.75, risk-reward ratio approximately 2.0**, considered a high-quality setup.
The fundamental support comes from the trading incentives of Crystal Drops boosting on-chain activity, daily liquidity injections from repurchases on December 23, and community FOMO sentiment driving short-term demand. There is a potential short squeeze above $0.738 with a $28.9 million short liquidation cluster that could accelerate the rise.
Bearish Scenario (Probability 40%):
Breaking down to the liquidation cascading range of $0.644-0.689. Triggering factors include immediate selling pressure from airdrop recipients, continuation of daily downtrend (all major MAs suppressing), and $5.49M long liquidation triggering a chain reaction at $0.689. Entry point <$0.71, stop loss $0.738, target $0.65.
Risk signals include a sustained positive funding rate indicating long positions are over-leveraged, continuous outflow of TVL reflecting insufficient confidence, and the daily unlocking of 1.47 million tokens forming structural selling pressure. If trading volume shrinks and buyback efforts fall short of expectations, sellers may dominate the market.
Neutral Factors:
An increase in derivatives open interest (+2.85% 24h) indicates heightened volatility but unclear direction. Social sentiment is positive but not overheated, lacking extreme FOMO signals. Multiple events on December 23 (buyback + testnet + airdrop) may produce offsetting effects.
Key Monitoring Indicators:
Funding Rate Changes: If negative, indicates short positions dominate and supports bearish sentiment; maintaining high positive values warns of crowded long positions. Buyback execution intensity: actual buyback amount relative to fee income ratio of $0.716 breaks confirmation: closing price stabilizing above SMA50 is a bullish signal. Liquidation data: liquidation scale of longs near $0.689 reflects downside risk. On-chain activity: changes in daily active addresses and transaction counts after Crystal Drops launch.
Conclusion
ASTER is at a critical technical and fundamental crossover point in the next 48 hours. Technical oversold (daily RSI 30.97) and 4-hour bullish divergence support rebound expectations, but the daily downtrend structure and highly concentrated long liquidation risk ($5.49M at $0.689) limit upside potential. The overlap of multiple catalysts creates a unique situation: Crystal Drops and the buyback plan provide structural buying support, but the unlocking of 96 million ASTER airdrop and daily linear release of 1.47 million tokens create hedging selling pressure. The market will seek a balance between incentive-driven demand and supply expansion.
Based on a 60/40 probability distribution, a moderate bullish bias seems more reasonable, but volatility is expected to increase significantly. Risk management is advised as a priority, focusing on the confirmation breakout at $0.716 as a trend signal, avoiding setting stop losses in the liquidation dense zones at $0.689 and $0.738. The intensity of buyback execution and the actual enthusiasm of community participation in Crystal Drops will be the most critical directional factors within 48 hours.$ASTER #加密市场观察
