Good morning everyone~
Last night, the market saw an important macro data release: the U.S. June non-farm payrolls report was officially published. The data shows that June added only 57,000 non-farm jobs, far below the market expectation of around 110,000. May’s figure was also revised down to 129,000. This indicates that the U.S. job market is continuing to cool. Although the unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, the main reason was a decline in the labor force participation rate, not a clear improvement in employment—so this non-farm data still carries a risk-tilt to favor risk assets.
The market believes that near-term pressure for the Fed to raise rates further has clearly weakened, and liquidity expectations are starting to shift toward a more accommodative direction.
Recently, U.S. stock tech sectors have undergone a noticeable round of correction. The market has started to re-evaluate the short-term profitability outlook for the AI industry. Some semiconductor and AI-related stocks saw funds take profits, and institutional capital has shown a “rotation” effect between winners and laggards. However, judging by the fund flows, the crypto market has instead begun to absorb some of the risk-averse capital.
Over the past five trading days, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw cumulative net outflows of nearly $950 million. But in the most recent trading day, funds quickly flowed back in—single-day net inflows were about $262 million. Almost all of it went to Bitcoin ETFs, while the Ethereum ETF still maintained a modest net outflow. This also suggests that institutional funds currently prefer Bitcoin, which offers the highest degree of certainty and the best liquidity. For Ethereum and most altcoins, the wait-and-see sentiment remains relatively strong.
As ETF inflows continue to recover, they strengthen support for Bitcoin from below. With expectations for rate cuts heating up and the policy environment continuing to improve, Bitcoin’s overall performance has been clearly stronger than that of altcoins. In the short term, the market will most likely remain in a structural行情 of “BTC strong, altcoins weak.” Capital will keep concentrating in leading assets. For altcoins to catch up broadly, they still need to wait for market risk appetite to further rebound.
Tonight, U.S. stocks will be closed for the U.S. Independence Day holiday, and overall market volatility is expected to be somewhat contained. Judging from the current trend, the broad market still has the chance to rebound in the short term. For today’s contract strategy, we still mainly focus on buying dips. At the same time, continue to watch whether there are any new developments regarding U.S.-Iran relations—geopolitics remains an important variable affecting market sentiment.
Key levels to watch today:
BTC above: around 63,000
ETH above: around 1,800
SOL above: around 85
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana
Last night, the market saw an important macro data release: the U.S. June non-farm payrolls report was officially published. The data shows that June added only 57,000 non-farm jobs, far below the market expectation of around 110,000. May’s figure was also revised down to 129,000. This indicates that the U.S. job market is continuing to cool. Although the unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, the main reason was a decline in the labor force participation rate, not a clear improvement in employment—so this non-farm data still carries a risk-tilt to favor risk assets.
The market believes that near-term pressure for the Fed to raise rates further has clearly weakened, and liquidity expectations are starting to shift toward a more accommodative direction.
Recently, U.S. stock tech sectors have undergone a noticeable round of correction. The market has started to re-evaluate the short-term profitability outlook for the AI industry. Some semiconductor and AI-related stocks saw funds take profits, and institutional capital has shown a “rotation” effect between winners and laggards. However, judging by the fund flows, the crypto market has instead begun to absorb some of the risk-averse capital.
Over the past five trading days, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw cumulative net outflows of nearly $950 million. But in the most recent trading day, funds quickly flowed back in—single-day net inflows were about $262 million. Almost all of it went to Bitcoin ETFs, while the Ethereum ETF still maintained a modest net outflow. This also suggests that institutional funds currently prefer Bitcoin, which offers the highest degree of certainty and the best liquidity. For Ethereum and most altcoins, the wait-and-see sentiment remains relatively strong.
As ETF inflows continue to recover, they strengthen support for Bitcoin from below. With expectations for rate cuts heating up and the policy environment continuing to improve, Bitcoin’s overall performance has been clearly stronger than that of altcoins. In the short term, the market will most likely remain in a structural行情 of “BTC strong, altcoins weak.” Capital will keep concentrating in leading assets. For altcoins to catch up broadly, they still need to wait for market risk appetite to further rebound.
Tonight, U.S. stocks will be closed for the U.S. Independence Day holiday, and overall market volatility is expected to be somewhat contained. Judging from the current trend, the broad market still has the chance to rebound in the short term. For today’s contract strategy, we still mainly focus on buying dips. At the same time, continue to watch whether there are any new developments regarding U.S.-Iran relations—geopolitics remains an important variable affecting market sentiment.
Key levels to watch today:
BTC above: around 63,000
ETH above: around 1,800
SOL above: around 85
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #solana