Nonfarm shocks, rate-cut narrative reopens
$BTC has been pulled from $59k all the way to $62k, and now it’s standing at $61k. $ETH is up 5.17% today, performing even stronger than BTC. Funding rates are still close to zero, indicating this move wasn’t built with excessive leverage. The long/short ratio also dropped from over 70% longs last week to 62%, and the position structure is healthier than it has been all week.
But one thing needs to be made clear: the logic that weak employment leads to rate cuts only holds if inflation cooperates as well. If next week’s CPI isn’t strong, then perhaps half of this rally has already been priced in ahead of time.
Today is the eve of the U.S. Independence Day holiday, when liquidity is thin and prices can easily drift with small orders. The direction is fine, but don’t chase tonight.
After the holiday ends is when the real test of this run’s quality begins.
DYOR, not investment advice #非农就业数据 #美国独立日
$BTC has been pulled from $59k all the way to $62k, and now it’s standing at $61k. $ETH is up 5.17% today, performing even stronger than BTC. Funding rates are still close to zero, indicating this move wasn’t built with excessive leverage. The long/short ratio also dropped from over 70% longs last week to 62%, and the position structure is healthier than it has been all week.
But one thing needs to be made clear: the logic that weak employment leads to rate cuts only holds if inflation cooperates as well. If next week’s CPI isn’t strong, then perhaps half of this rally has already been priced in ahead of time.
Today is the eve of the U.S. Independence Day holiday, when liquidity is thin and prices can easily drift with small orders. The direction is fine, but don’t chase tonight.
After the holiday ends is when the real test of this run’s quality begins.
DYOR, not investment advice #非农就业数据 #美国独立日