GiGiZ 發財豬

Ethereum needs to be torn down and rebuilt. This time, Vitalik isn’t doing minor tweaks again—not another EIP. He wants to rethink the underlying layer from scratch.

Just after the Berlin conference ended, Vitalik said Ethereum has settled on a roadmap called “Simplified Ethereum.” This is the third major overhaul for Ethereum after the Merge in 2022. And this time, it’s moving the heart and the brain.
$ETH

💡 What changes?
➡️ Verification method
Previously, nodes executed directly. Afterwards, it will switch to recursive STARK proofs. This means you won’t need everyone to run through everything—mathematical proof that it was done correctly will be enough. Efficiency and privacy will improve significantly.

➡️ Consensus layer
Introduce 1 to 2 rounds of finality mechanisms. Finality will be faster and more predictable, avoiding that awkward situation where something is “theoretically safe” but in practice takes 12 minutes.

➡️ Quantum security
It’s not an added clause—it’s required by the underlying design to be quantum-resistant. This includes requiring that all new components support quantum resistance, as well as privacy-preserving transactions without intermediaries. This is something many major chains have not put into their core agenda until relatively early.

➡️ Transaction fees
After rewriting the state model, transaction fees are expected to drop by more than 10x. If this can be realized, Ethereum’s competitiveness at the retail user level could change in a qualitatively significant way.

🤔 Timing
This isn’t a single upgrade—it’s a continuous sequence of forks over the next 3 to 4 years. H-star and Hegota are the last two pre-simplification forks. After that, starting from I-star, it moves into the official simplification evolution sequence. If you buy ETH today, you’re buying something still under construction—but the blueprint is already out. That’s better than having nothing.

🤔 On-chain big whales
Starting in July, large holders began steadily accumulating—earlier by a few days than the release of this roadmap. Either they got advance information, or they’re simply betting on a Q3 rebound: after three consecutive quarters of decline, the logic of an undervaluation repair has always been there.

✍️ Concerns
No matter how good the roadmap is, 3 to 4 years is a long time. Ethereum has had examples before where the roadmap looked great but execution dragged on for years. Whether it can land depends on whether the research team, client teams, and the entire ecosystem can coordinate smoothly.

Competition hasn’t paused either. Chains like Solana and Sui won’t wait for Ethereum to finish and then make their moves. In 3 to 4 years, a lot can happen.

💡 If the roadmap can be delivered, ETH will become a lighter, faster, more private, quantum-secure chain. But if execution is delayed, it will be screenshotted and mocked three years from now.

Not investment advice

Not long after Musk and Trump fell out, now he’s trying to donate SpaceX stock into Trump’s account. The speed of this political reconciliation is even faster than the crypto market’s bounce.

Trump’s account officially went live on July 6. The government directly injects $1,000 into each newborn born between 2025 and 2028, and then families can add another $5,000 each year.

Micron poured in $250 million, Dell has to give 25 million children $250 each. Next week, Nasdaq and the NYSE will head to the White House to knock on the doors of the Oval Office and ring the opening bell.

They call it children’s wealth management, but it feels more like America’s tech and finance elites collectively handing Trump their loyalty pledges.

Micron just dropped 5% last week over an AI compute-power dispute, then turned around to donate $250 million—and was immediately singled out and praised in front of the president’s camera. Their PR math is pretty loud 👍

The real question is: where does the money go, who manages it, and how are the fees calculated—none of the details have been provided. If Musk really stuffs SpaceX’s unlisted shares into this, ordinary families will end up holding a pile of hard-to-liquidate private equity. The exit mechanism is a big question mark 🤔

Political products before financial products
After it went live on July 6, that’s when the real test begins.

DYOR Not investment advice
$SPCXB

This World Cup, Cape Verde 🇨🇻 is truly one of the biggest surprise machines

In the group stage, they qualified with three draws—shocking everyone

Cape Verde were in Group H, facing Spain, Uruguay, and Saudi Arabia

- Spain 0-0 Cape Verde (June 15) — World Cup debut; they directly held back the defending European champions, causing an uproar
- Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde (June 21) — After falling behind, they equalized, another major upset
- Cape Verde 0-0 Saudi Arabia — solidly locked down the points

All three matches ended in draws. With 3 points, they advanced in group play unbeaten throughout, scoring 2 and conceding 2

For an island nation ranked 64th by FIFA and making their World Cup debut, this achievement is already historic 😲

⚽️Knockout stage: earlier this morning at kickoff, Cape Verde 🇨🇻 faced the defending world champions, Argentina 🇦🇷, and Messi was on the field!

The result was a 2-2 draw that went into extra time
In the end, they were only broken in the final few minutes—Argentina 3-2 Cape Verde. Argentina edged it to advance

A 64th-ranked island nation pushed that World Cup champion into extra time—so close to flipping the table

⚽️Why is Cape Verde so hard to deal with?

Their tactics are crystal clear: high-pressing pressure plus quick counterattacks. Their defensive organization is extremely tight, their ball distribution is fast, and they don’t give strong teams time to set up their shape. Coach Pedro Brito has trained this squad to be highly disciplined—they don’t rely on individual genius, they rely on the team

This style of play is especially troublesome for technical sides like Spain. Spain had plenty of possession all match, but they just couldn’t get in. They completely exploited the mental complacency of strong teams

Even in defeat, glory 🏆
Making it to the knockout stage, narrowly drawing two powerhouses, and forcing Argentina to play extra time—this Cape Verde team should be written into the history of African football with a big 👍

The World Cup needs Cape Verde’s story
And the world needs it too

#韩国股市上涨5%
I think this is a technical oversold rebound, not a trend reversal

In two days, it fell nearly 10%. KOSPI dropped 7.89% in a single day, Samsung fell 9%, and SK hynix fell 14.6%. It was already oversold—so it’s normal for someone to step in and bottom-fish today

But the logic that triggered this plunge—Meta building its own compute power and renting it out—has not disappeared. The issue that the former major customers have become competitors won’t be priced in just because there’s a one-day rebound

💡 The logic is consistent across four markets

🍀 U.S. stocks are the starter gun
Once Meta’s signal came out, CoreWeave fell 14% in a day, MU fell 5%, and the Nasdaq’s hardware AI sector was repriced as a whole. This selling pressure quickly transmitted to Asia

🍀 South Korea is the epicenter
The Korean won broke below 1,550, hitting the lowest level since 2009. Foreign investors are “voting with their feet.” SK hynix and Samsung’s businesses depend heavily on this batch of major customers, which is why they fell the hardest. Today’s rebound is happening because the selloff was overshot, but pressure on the exchange rate is still there, and the logic for foreign outflows hasn’t fundamentally changed

🍀 Hong Kong follows the tremor
The Hang Seng Index had already fallen below 26,000. The tech sector has been under pressure. This AI divergence is having a sustained impact on Hong Kong’s AI concept stocks—stocks like Tencent and Alibaba, which have AI narratives, will continue to swing with U.S. market sentiment

🍀 A-shares are relatively independent, but didn’t escape
In the last sharp drop, the STAR Market 50 fell 3% week-on-week. Whether it can rebound today depends on today’s trading action. But one analysis seems to have been fairly accurate: A-share tech bellwethers still need to watch the moods of the U.S. stocks and the Korean market. There’s limited room for purely independent narratives. The mid-July AI conference is the next local catalyst, but the risk of having priced it in early still exists

🤔 Does this AI skepticism have any real basis?
Demand is fine—Genuine (Juhuang) is still raising prices; AMD has raised its GPU shipment prices for the second time within six months; upstream supply and demand remain tight. The question is how profits are allocated. After large firms build in-house, the bargaining power of midstream service providers weakens—can that be digested in just one or two quarters?

The market is pricing in two time horizons at once: in the short term, traders are responding to the immediate shock of Meta’s signal; in the medium term, they’re betting on the overall direction of the AI supercycle. South Korea rebounded about 5% today, suggesting short-term panic is calming, but the medium-term repricing is nowhere near complete

Today, $BTC is the easiest one. After the nonfarm payrolls missed expectations, rate-cut expectations opened up, and $61K moved in the opposite direction from AI stocks on its own. AI stocks are chaotic—while macro is giving a sigh of relief first

Not investment advice

After three consecutive quarters of declines, ETH rebounds and breaks above $1,700
After three straight quarters of declines, this rally led by $ETH is quite interesting—not just because the jobs report (non-farm) missed


The most dramatic thing happened on-chain: a big whale, sat0shi777, who previously held an ETH short position of nearly $90 million, was only about $16 away from getting liquidated last night. It was that close to the edge. Then when ETH surged, within half an hour it was liquidated 31,600 ETH—about $53.5 million in notional—with losses exceeding $4.5 million

But it wasn’t over. His remaining short position of about $38 million has a liquidation price around $1,764. ETH is currently at $1,707—only about $57 away. That short is still hanging there like a live time bomb. If the market pushes it just a bit further, another round of forced-liquidation cascades could follow. This kind of live grenade affects direction: longs have extra incentive to push the price toward $1,764

Fundamentals are also sending mixed but broadly constructive signals. Tom Lee said the ETH/BTC ratio has reasons to strengthen in the second half of the year. Dragonfly partner also made it clear they’re bullish on ETH and SOL. These statements aren’t direct buy signals on their own, but they do show the institutional narrative shifting. After three quarters of declines, the “sunk-cost” narrative for ETH is turning into potential upside from oversold conditions

There is also a lurking concern: the three-quarter decline wasn’t random. In this period, ETH hasn’t really introduced a compelling new story at the application layer—L2 diversion, competing chains grabbing ecosystem mindshare, and fundamental pressure hasn’t disappeared. The trigger for this rally was macro—non-farm and rate-cut expectations—not an ETH-specific catalyst. So if the rate-cut narrative gets discounted by CPI data, the durability of this rebound will be in question

For the short term, the key level to watch is actually the liquidation line at $1,764. If price breaks above it, a chain of short liquidations could push the market one more leg higher. If it meets resistance around $1,750, watch out for a pullback

DYOR, not investment advice #ETH走势分析

Nonfarm shocks, rate-cut narrative reopens

$BTC has been pulled from $59k all the way to $62k, and now it’s standing at $61k. $ETH is up 5.17% today, performing even stronger than BTC. Funding rates are still close to zero, indicating this move wasn’t built with excessive leverage. The long/short ratio also dropped from over 70% longs last week to 62%, and the position structure is healthier than it has been all week.

But one thing needs to be made clear: the logic that weak employment leads to rate cuts only holds if inflation cooperates as well. If next week’s CPI isn’t strong, then perhaps half of this rally has already been priced in ahead of time.

Today is the eve of the U.S. Independence Day holiday, when liquidity is thin and prices can easily drift with small orders. The direction is fine, but don’t chase tonight.

After the holiday ends is when the real test of this run’s quality begins.

DYOR, not investment advice #非农就业数据 #美国独立日

AI stocks collectively experience a deep pullback; this time, the fuse is rather unusual—not that demand is gone, but that Meta itself wants to step in and grab market share.

Zuckerberg has sent a signal: Meta’s computing infrastructure will move into a dual-track model of “in-house use plus external leasing.” In other words, Meta will no longer just buy others’ compute and storage—it will build its own and then sell it outward. The impact lies in the fact that original major customers are now turning into competitors.

This directly shakes the pricing logic for third-party compute and storage providers like CoreWeave, SK hynix, and Micron. SK hynix fell 9.7% today, Samsung dropped 7.1%, Micron (MU) slid 5%, and CoreWeave plunged 14% in a single day. This isn’t because earnings are bad—it’s the market reassessing how much bargaining power these companies will still have in the future.

For the past few years, profit distribution along the AI supply chain has roughly looked like this: NVIDIA captures compute premiums; HBM memory makers capture storage premiums—led by SK hynix. Cloud compute companies like CoreWeave capture the middleman premium, while big tech firms like Microsoft, Meta, and Google are the ones paying.

But now the logic for big tech is changing. Once capital spending on compute reaches a certain scale, building in-house becomes cheaper than buying externally—and it also allows them to turn idle capacity into a new revenue stream.

Today’s signal from Meta isn’t something Google or Microsoft isn’t already doing. Google Cloud and Azure are already operating under this model; Meta is simply being more explicit this time.

If this model is validated, profits in the AI supply chain could shift from midstream service providers toward big tech. The moats of companies like SK hynix and CoreWeave would narrow. Whether this can be fully digested in a single day remains to be seen.

This doesn’t mean demand is shrinking. Juheng (国巨) is still raising prices this week; AMD has increased GPU shipment prices for the second time within half a year. Supply and demand upstream remain tight. It’s just that the way profits are distributed is changing— the pie is still getting bigger, but the logic of how it’s split is being renegotiated.

Today, $BTC actually rose 2.8%, moving opposite to the decline in AI stocks. This suggests the AI stock pullback isn’t “infecting” sentiment like it did last week when South Korea’s circuit breaker triggered. The main reason is that today BTC has its own catalyst— the market is waiting for tonight’s 20:30 Non-Farm Payrolls data, with some traders betting on a soft landing ahead of time.

But if tonight’s NFP comes in strong again, AI stocks will fall and a hawkish narrative will pressure from both sides—$60K may not hold.

NFP at 20:30—what matters most today ☝🏻

#亚洲股市因芯片股抛售下跌

Tech Seven Sisters sold off today after noon
There are two reasons stacked on top of each other

One is internal: tech stocks have been rising for too long and too fast. Today’s declines are precisely concentrated in the hottest names from earlier. The ones that are rising are the previously ignored sectors—livestock breeding, finance, and dividends all rebounded across the board. This is simply a rotation of positions: capital is withdrawing from crowded trades. There isn’t a fundamental problem.

The other is external: the Korean won today broke below 1550, hitting a new low since 2009. As the U.S. dollar strengthens, the discount rate for growth stocks rises. This logic directly compresses valuations—this isn’t a mood issue. South Korea’s tech supply chain is down, China A-share tech is down, and BTC is down—three markets, one shared cause.

But the signals for business conditions haven’t changed. Yageo (国巨) announced a price increase across its entire line of capacitors, covering 50% of revenue, and for the first time also included direct customers. AMD raised its GPU shipment price again for the second time within half a year. Upstream price increases and stock price declines aren’t contradictory: one reflects current supply and demand, and the other reflects a repricing of expectations.

Today’s drop doesn’t need to be too worrying—it’s just a normal release of crowded positioning.

There are two real variables:
One is whether the dollar continues to strengthen, keeping the pressure persistent.
Second is whether the mid-July AI conference has already been priced in early. After the event, watch out for “Sell the News.”

Tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls at 20:30 is the real turning point.

DYOR Not investment advice
#非农就业数据 #科技七姐妹

AI sector signals diverge: semiconductors boost, storage prices fall
In the same big AI cycle, two stories moving in opposite directions—and both are real

Semiconductor segment: a V-shaped reversal, but who is selling?

The US semiconductor index surged nearly 4% yesterday in a single day. Astera Labs jumped more than 16%. From the mood of circuit breakers in Asia over the past few days, it directly snapped back in a V-shape.

But on the same day, one detail was overlooked: last week hedge funds sold US information technology stocks at a scale that set a record high. Retail investors are chasing the rebound, while large hedge funds are trimming at these prices. This divergence is more worth serious attention than the price move itself.

Morgan Stanley also warned that the semiconductor sector may be topping out in the near term. South Korea’s KOSPI keeps falling by another 2%, and SK Hynix fell another 3.8%. A US rebound and continued declines in Asia happen at the same time—showing this is not a unified direction. Instead, capital is reallocating across regions and assets.

Storage segment: the start of price-hike cycle loosening

After Beijing-based Will Semiconductor (兆易创新) publicly stated that its marginal capacity will increase going forward, product prices are expected to see a "substantial pullback." This is what companies in the industry are telling you: the storage price-hike cycle driven by AI demand may be approaching its ceiling.

The timing difference is subtle. Apple and Microsoft have just raised chip-related costs, and consumers are only beginning to pay that bill. But by the time the higher prices reach the end market, upstream costs may already have started to reverse. The premium consumers are about to pay corresponds to the moment when upstream costs begin to move downward.

My view: structural adjustment inside the big AI cycle

In the first half, there was a phase of extreme expansion at the infrastructure layer—NVIDIA, TSMC, and HBM storage were in short supply, and everything tied to compute power rose. That stage is basically over.

In the second half, the logic will be more differentiated. Companies that simply “sell shovels” face lower prices due to capacity expansion. The real main characters are those who build moats at the application layer. But that story has not yet been clearly priced in the secondary market.

For AI network infrastructure companies like Astera Labs, a 16% jump in a day is precisely where “smart money” is shifting exposure—from general storage/semiconductors toward more niche segments closer to the actual deployment bottleneck.

As the AI narrative switches from a hardware super-cycle to diversification in the application layer, in the short term it has no direct impact on $BTC . But the overall sentiment of AI + crypto will continue to face pressure as the semiconductor sector shakes.

The real direction this week is determined by Thursday’s Non-Farm Payrolls.
DYOR (not investment advice)

#AI芯片

All reserve-value assets fall across the board; gold, silver, and Bitcoin all drop at the same time
These three assets usually have little correlation, but they share a common label: they are reserve-value assets used to hedge against fiat currency devaluation.

When all three collapse simultaneously, the market is essentially saying one thing: the devaluation-trade logic has already broken down.

Gold broke below $4,000 intraday today. Its year high was $5,586; it is now at $4,103, down about 28% from the peak.

Silver is even worse: it has fallen more than 50% from its peak to below $59.

$BTC is now $60,212, $ETH $1,574, and the funding rate is close to zero.

The most unusual thing is that the escalation of the U.S.-Iran war is happening. Under normal logic, geopolitical conflict → risk-off sentiment → gold rises. But when the war escalated, gold instead fell through $4,000. This suggests that the suppressive force of the rate-hike narrative in the market is stronger than the need for geopolitical safe-haven demand right now.

The Fed has been sending hawkish signals consistently, clearly favoring rate hikes rather than rate cuts. The dollar is currently at multi-month highs. When the holding cost of non-yielding assets keeps rising, things without cash flow become increasingly difficult to defend their valuations—whether they are called gold or Bitcoin.

Gold’s drop from $5,600 to $4,000 is a real trend-driven decline. Behind it is a U.S. dollar appreciation cycle systematically crushing the devaluation hedge narrative. Bitcoin’s drawdown from its peak has been much smaller than gold’s. And since the funding rate has returned to near zero, it indicates that leverage cleanup is basically over and the extreme panic phase has passed.

But the week ahead will really be tough.

This week, three layers of pressure are stacking up. On Wednesday, July 2, the non-farm payrolls data was moved up to 5 days earlier because of the Independence Day holiday. Also, on June 30, at month-end, institutions rebalanced their portfolios, and the U.S.-Iran conflict continues to escalate.

If the non-farm payrolls remain strong—then Morgan Stanley’s low-unemployment triggering rate-hike logic is essentially directly validated, and the market will shift one more step in the direction of rate hikes. Month-end rebalancing usually brings passive selling pressure. At quarter-end/season-end, institutions cut risk assets.

My view right now is: in the short term, don’t chase the direction, whether going long or short. BTC is chopping around near $60K. After the options expire, the pressure eased a bit, but macro pressure hasn’t disappeared. Wait until the non-farm data comes out—that will be the true watershed for this move.

If non-farm is strong → rate-hike expectations stay under pressure → $60K can’t be held → look for $57–58K.

If non-farm is weak → rate-cut expectations recover → BTC will only then have a chance to turn $60K into real support.

This week’s trading strategy is one word: wait.

DYOR

Morgan Stanley warns: low unemployment could become the trigger for rate hikes. When you pair this with yesterday’s PCE, it actually paints a more complete macro pressure map

$BTC is barely holding above $60K right now, but the pile of macro signals overhead keeps getting heavier $BTC

The core logic behind Morgan Stanley’s warning is actually pretty counterintuitive: the better the labor market is, the higher the risk of rate hikes. Normally, people think low unemployment is a good thing

But in the current backdrop, where inflation has not turned, a too-strong labor market means demand has not been crushed, making inflation harder to bring down and giving the Fed less room to ease

Once unemployment falls below 4%, rate hikes stop being an option and become pressure

Fed’s Kashkari was even more direct, expecting one rate hike in 2026 and rates to remain unchanged in 2027. In black and white, the official message to the market is: don’t expect rate cuts this year, and there may even be another hike

Add yesterday’s PCE on top of that: core YoY at 3.4%, a three-year high, Williams says inflation returning to 2% may not happen until 2028, and dollar bulls hold a net position of $29.4 billion

All three layers of signals point to the same thing: the tightening path will be longer than everyone expected

Impact on crypto: this is not a new bearish catalyst that will cause a crash in a single day, but a structural pressure that gradually eats into rebound room

BTC’s move from $58k back to $60k has already been a struggle, and under this macro narrative, the $62K-$63K trapped-holder zone is the ceiling; every small rise faces fresh selling pressure

What’s more troublesome is that next week’s nonfarm payrolls data is coming out. If employment data remains strong, Morgan Stanley’s logic that low unemployment could trigger rate hikes will be directly validated, and market pricing will shift another notch toward hikes

In the short term, BTC at $60K is the key dividing line: hold it and it can keep grinding; lose it and it may return to $57-58K to look for new support. Before the nonfarm data comes out, directional trades carry elevated risk

DYOR Not financial advice

#苹果股价跌6.1%
Apple is dropping pretty hard today 🍎

The latest price is $275.15. It was at $293.17 at yesterday’s close. Today it opened lower and kept sliding—the low touched $273.75, with a single-day decline of nearly -6.2%. What’s even more notable is the trading volume: today it’s already hit 102 million shares. The 10-day average volume is only 55.26 million shares—almost twice typical daily levels. That suggests this isn’t casual selling; someone is seriously de-risking

Apple’s situation right now is rather delicate—several lines are pressing down on it at the same time ⬇️

First is TSMC raising prices
Apple’s M4 and A18 chips run on TSMC’s most advanced processes. TSMC is raising prices across the board by 5–10% this time, and Apple is not on the exception list. The issue is that Apple’s profit margins are already quite thin. Whether higher prices can be passed through to consumers is a real question—and the market is pricing in that uncertainty

Second is today’s PCE data
Total PCE is up 4.1% year over year, and core is 3.4%, the highest in three years. Fed Chair Williams said inflation returning to 2% may not happen until 2028. This directly weighs on richly valued tech stocks. Under these rate expectations, Apple’s P/E ratio was already struggling

Third is the structural picture
Apple’s 52-week high was $317.4. It’s now at $275—down nearly 13% from the peak. The 50-day moving average is at $291, and today it already fell below it. The 200-day moving average is at $269—only a few dollars away. If $270 can’t hold, and the 200-day moving average breaks, the technical picture will look really ugly

My take on Apple is that this round of selloff feels like it’s being squeezed from both ends: on the supply side, TSMC is pushing up costs; on the demand side, the high-rate environment is causing consumers to downgrade; and at the same time, AI investment still needs to keep burning cash. These three things stacked together can be quite damaging to valuation. Apple isn’t a company that’s about to collapse, but against this macro backdrop—and with a $2.6T market cap—its upside flexibility is relatively limited

With today’s volume-heavy drop, in the near term it most likely needs time to digest technically. $270 is the key support: if it holds, it could stabilize; if it doesn’t, look for around $260. For a rebound, first watch whether it can get back above $285—that would be a meaningful repair

DYOR, not investment advice #美股超话

PCE data is out. To be honest, the result itself isn’t really surprising, but the three layers of signals pointing in the same direction is pretty stifling.

In May, overall PCE rose 4.1% year-on-year, and core PCE rose 3.4% year-on-year, in line with expectations, but it also confirms a new high since 2023. Inflation hasn’t spiraled out of control, but there are also no signs it’s going to move downward.

What’s more troublesome is that the driving force has shifted from energy to housing and durable goods. This kind of structural spread is harder to deal with than a simple energy-price rise because it’s stickier and more difficult to suppress.

Williams from the Fed said inflation returning to the 2% target may be delayed until 2028. There’s a lot of information in that sentence. It’s not just about whether rate cuts happen this year; it’s that the entire tightening cycle may be much longer than originally thought. Williams is already hawkish, and this data will only make him even more forceful.

Market positioning also reacted very directly. On Wall Street, net long exposure in the U.S. dollar rose to $29.4 billion. That’s a heavy stake, indicating institutions are using real money to bet on deeper tightening—not just talking about it.

In crypto, now $BTC $59905 24h -1.5%, $ETH $1552 24h -4.1%. ETH is falling worse than BTC, which suggests that when risk appetite contracts, capital first concentrates in places with better liquidity—this is a very classic defensive pattern.

I think the hardest part right now is that everything lines up. Inflation data confirms the peak, Fed officials’ judgment points to a delayed achievement of targets, and market positioning is all-in on being long the dollar. Three signals point to the same conclusion. This isn’t a kind of pressure that will disappear quickly—it’s structural.

That reversal sentiment window from Micron’s earnings report opened, but today’s PCE has pushed it down by another notch. The crypto market’s situation right now is a bit like being sandwiched: the AI demand narrative is a tailwind, but macro liquidity is a headwind. The two forces are tugging against each other, and the short-term direction is unclear.

If BTC at $60K really can’t hold, this weekend might not be so great 🥲

DYOR (not investment advice)

A couple of days ago, when TSMC announced their price hike, AI stocks took a massive hit, with Micron dropping over 13% in a single day, and BTC falling below $60K.

The mood in the market those days was that AI costs were spiraling out of control, but then last night, Micron's earnings report flipped the script.

Revenue hit $41.46 billion, exceeding expectations by 17.6%, with an EPS of $2.51, beating forecasts by 23.8% and showing a year-on-year growth of over 340%. Q4 guidance is at $5 billion, way above the anticipated $4.358 billion.

Even more impressive, management said they secured 16 long-term strategic agreements, guaranteeing revenues over $100 billion, with HBM capacity sold out until 2030, and memory shortages extending until 2028. After-hours, MU soared over 13%, and this morning, SK Hynix opened up 11%.

I think this earnings report shows that the demand for AI is so strong that TSMC's price hike doesn’t matter. Rising costs are fine; downstream will take all the orders because if you don’t buy, you’ll miss out.

Just two days ago, the market was worried about cost shocks crushing AI investment logic, and reality just slapped that concern in the face. Jensen Huang mentioned during NVIDIA's shareholder meeting that this AI infrastructure cycle could last for decades, and these two events together indicate a shift in sentiment.

On the crypto side, we’re currently at $BTC $61,573, down 2% in 24h, with $ETH $1,645 and $SOL $69 still slightly dipping, but funding rates are at -0.0028%, meaning shorts are paying the longs. This signal suggests that the leverage washout from a few days ago is nearly done, and we’ve passed the most panicked phase.


However, I’m not saying we’ve flipped just yet. The fundamental reason dragging crypto down is the Fed's policy shift, not TSMC's price hikes. One earnings report from Micron doesn’t solve this issue. The PCE data is coming out later this week, and there are no signs from the Fed of any easing.

My current judgment is that the worst panic sell-off scenario has basically been alleviated, but for a proper long position, we need to wait until $60K is firmly established and see that the PCE data doesn’t crash. Both conditions need to be met before it's really time to enter the market.

Let’s keep an eye on things for a couple of days.
DYOR, not investment advice.

Last night, $BTC broke below $60K, but now it's back above that mark. In the past 24 hours, it's still down about 2.9%. Everything's in the red, with $ETH at $1621 and $SOL at $67, but they've bounced back too.

The scenario we were most worried about last night didn’t fully materialize; $59K didn’t crash downwards aggressively, and the bulls are holding their ground for now.

Micron's earnings report is a key variable. From the market's current reaction, it doesn’t look like we're heading for a meltdown. If BTC can bounce from around $59K back up to above $60K, it means at least there aren't any fresh bearish catalysts coming out. But let's not get too optimistic; $60K was previously a support level, and now it's a resistance that needs to be firmly reclaimed.

The ripple effects of TSMC's price hikes are still being felt, PCE data hasn’t been released yet, and the Fed hasn’t shown any signs of easing up. Overall, the structure still leans weak; we just don’t have any new catalysts to push for further sell-offs at the moment.

Keep an eye on whether we can truly hold above $60K in the next couple of days. Only if we solidify above that level can we start chatting about a potential rally; if we can’t hold, we’ll likely test the $57K-$58K range.

DYOR, not investment advice.
#比特币跌破200周均线