#韩国股市上涨5%
I think this is a technical oversold rebound, not a trend reversal
In two days, it fell nearly 10%. KOSPI dropped 7.89% in a single day, Samsung fell 9%, and SK hynix fell 14.6%. It was already oversold—so it’s normal for someone to step in and bottom-fish today
But the logic that triggered this plunge—Meta building its own compute power and renting it out—has not disappeared. The issue that the former major customers have become competitors won’t be priced in just because there’s a one-day rebound
💡 The logic is consistent across four markets
🍀 U.S. stocks are the starter gun
Once Meta’s signal came out, CoreWeave fell 14% in a day, MU fell 5%, and the Nasdaq’s hardware AI sector was repriced as a whole. This selling pressure quickly transmitted to Asia
🍀 South Korea is the epicenter
The Korean won broke below 1,550, hitting the lowest level since 2009. Foreign investors are “voting with their feet.” SK hynix and Samsung’s businesses depend heavily on this batch of major customers, which is why they fell the hardest. Today’s rebound is happening because the selloff was overshot, but pressure on the exchange rate is still there, and the logic for foreign outflows hasn’t fundamentally changed
🍀 Hong Kong follows the tremor
The Hang Seng Index had already fallen below 26,000. The tech sector has been under pressure. This AI divergence is having a sustained impact on Hong Kong’s AI concept stocks—stocks like Tencent and Alibaba, which have AI narratives, will continue to swing with U.S. market sentiment
🍀 A-shares are relatively independent, but didn’t escape
In the last sharp drop, the STAR Market 50 fell 3% week-on-week. Whether it can rebound today depends on today’s trading action. But one analysis seems to have been fairly accurate: A-share tech bellwethers still need to watch the moods of the U.S. stocks and the Korean market. There’s limited room for purely independent narratives. The mid-July AI conference is the next local catalyst, but the risk of having priced it in early still exists
🤔 Does this AI skepticism have any real basis?
Demand is fine—Genuine (Juhuang) is still raising prices; AMD has raised its GPU shipment prices for the second time within six months; upstream supply and demand remain tight. The question is how profits are allocated. After large firms build in-house, the bargaining power of midstream service providers weakens—can that be digested in just one or two quarters?
The market is pricing in two time horizons at once: in the short term, traders are responding to the immediate shock of Meta’s signal; in the medium term, they’re betting on the overall direction of the AI supercycle. South Korea rebounded about 5% today, suggesting short-term panic is calming, but the medium-term repricing is nowhere near complete
Today, $BTC is the easiest one. After the nonfarm payrolls missed expectations, rate-cut expectations opened up, and $61K moved in the opposite direction from AI stocks on its own. AI stocks are chaotic—while macro is giving a sigh of relief first
Not investment advice
I think this is a technical oversold rebound, not a trend reversal
In two days, it fell nearly 10%. KOSPI dropped 7.89% in a single day, Samsung fell 9%, and SK hynix fell 14.6%. It was already oversold—so it’s normal for someone to step in and bottom-fish today
But the logic that triggered this plunge—Meta building its own compute power and renting it out—has not disappeared. The issue that the former major customers have become competitors won’t be priced in just because there’s a one-day rebound
💡 The logic is consistent across four markets
🍀 U.S. stocks are the starter gun
Once Meta’s signal came out, CoreWeave fell 14% in a day, MU fell 5%, and the Nasdaq’s hardware AI sector was repriced as a whole. This selling pressure quickly transmitted to Asia
🍀 South Korea is the epicenter
The Korean won broke below 1,550, hitting the lowest level since 2009. Foreign investors are “voting with their feet.” SK hynix and Samsung’s businesses depend heavily on this batch of major customers, which is why they fell the hardest. Today’s rebound is happening because the selloff was overshot, but pressure on the exchange rate is still there, and the logic for foreign outflows hasn’t fundamentally changed
🍀 Hong Kong follows the tremor
The Hang Seng Index had already fallen below 26,000. The tech sector has been under pressure. This AI divergence is having a sustained impact on Hong Kong’s AI concept stocks—stocks like Tencent and Alibaba, which have AI narratives, will continue to swing with U.S. market sentiment
🍀 A-shares are relatively independent, but didn’t escape
In the last sharp drop, the STAR Market 50 fell 3% week-on-week. Whether it can rebound today depends on today’s trading action. But one analysis seems to have been fairly accurate: A-share tech bellwethers still need to watch the moods of the U.S. stocks and the Korean market. There’s limited room for purely independent narratives. The mid-July AI conference is the next local catalyst, but the risk of having priced it in early still exists
🤔 Does this AI skepticism have any real basis?
Demand is fine—Genuine (Juhuang) is still raising prices; AMD has raised its GPU shipment prices for the second time within six months; upstream supply and demand remain tight. The question is how profits are allocated. After large firms build in-house, the bargaining power of midstream service providers weakens—can that be digested in just one or two quarters?
The market is pricing in two time horizons at once: in the short term, traders are responding to the immediate shock of Meta’s signal; in the medium term, they’re betting on the overall direction of the AI supercycle. South Korea rebounded about 5% today, suggesting short-term panic is calming, but the medium-term repricing is nowhere near complete
Today, $BTC is the easiest one. After the nonfarm payrolls missed expectations, rate-cut expectations opened up, and $61K moved in the opposite direction from AI stocks on its own. AI stocks are chaotic—while macro is giving a sigh of relief first
Not investment advice