After the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum rose, they faced selling pressure again last night and fell, with the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January increasing to 80%!
On Monday, Bitcoin rebounded during the day, reaching a high of around 90600 before last night's US market opening. Ethereum rebounded and broke through the 3000 level in the morning, and then slowly rose, reaching a high of around 3080 in the evening. After the US market opened, prices experienced severe fluctuations and dropped, widening the decline early this morning, with Bitcoin dipping to 87800 and Ethereum falling to 2960, erasing the daily gains.
Macro-wise, Federal Reserve executive Milan stated last night that policies need to be further loosened to prevent an economic recession. The rising unemployment rate should prompt continued interest rate cuts, but since September, there have already been three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, and there is no need for another significant rate cut of 50 basis points next month. The strong rate cut stance has softened, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January has increased to 80%.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's daily chart shows that the middle track has not been broken through, and the price remains between the middle track and the lower track. However, the four-hour MA5 moving average is still upward, providing support, and the hourly MACD is also narrowing and repairing. Prices are expected to have some rebounds in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. The short-term resistance to watch during the day is at 89500 and 90500, which are the key conversion zones mentioned yesterday. Only a strong breakthrough and stabilization can change the recent bearish trend. The short-term support below remains at the 87500 to 87000 area.
Ethereum is relatively resilient, currently holding at the 3000 level. From a technical perspective, there is pressure at the middle track of the daily chart at 3060, which has not been broken through. This is the area to watch for short-term resistance during the day. Only a strong breakthrough can lead to further increases testing the strong resistance area of 3150 to 3250; otherwise, prices will remain weak and fluctuate. The short-term support below has moved up to the 2940 to 2900 area, which is the key defense area for the day's pullback.
BTC Short-term
Support: 87500, 87000
Resistance: 89500, 90500
ETH Short-term
Support: 2940, 2900
Resistance: 3060, 3150
