First layer | Direction & Market status (Referee layer)

Conclusion in one sentence:
It is neither a downtrend nor the start of a major rise, but rather the 'last accumulation area before the start'—the meat above is more appealing than below.

Core evidence (only looking at what can determine direction)

  • Structure:
    1H / 4H obviously consolidating upwards,lows no longer decline, 3010–2980 has become the cost zone repeatedly defended by the main force

  • Liquidation map (1D + 1W):

    • Below:
      Liquidation density below 2950 starts to thin out,Cost performance declines
      The real fat part is at 2850–2800 (only available in 1W)

    • Above:
      3100–3180 Continuous short liquidation stacking appears

  • Capital flow:

    • Contract: Medium cycle (4H–8H) continuous net inflow

    • Spot: No obvious panic outflow → not a sign of a market crash

  • OI:
    High-level oscillation does not collapse → Washing warehouse, not a retreat

  • OBV / MAOBV (according to your latest rules):
    OBV value slightly lower than MAOBV, in line with operation
    👉 Only allowed to test, not allowed to heavily invest

Referee conclusion:

The main force is waiting for 'the upper short to become fatter + emotions to be a bit more anxious',
Now is not the golden zone for shorting, it isA range preparing for upward forced liquidation.

Second layer | Main force route judgment (A / B / C)

🟢 Main line A (≈65%) | Sideways absorption → Upward forced liquidation

Target: First 3100 → Then 3180
Logic:

  • Upper liquidation continues to accumulate

  • No longer actively deep killing below

  • Contract funds + OI synchronously rise

Confirmation point

  • Price stabilizes at 3020–3040

  • Pullback does not break 3000

  • OBV no longer makes new lows

Deviation point

  • A clear volume failure at 3060–3080

  • CVD active selling continuously expands

Switching point

  • Effectively breaks 2950 (closes below)

🟡 Subline B (≈25%) | False break → Pull again

Route:

  • Spike 2950–2920

  • Quickly pull back above 3000

Trigger condition

  • BTC synchronously plunges

  • Large transactions appear below 2950

👉 This is for replenishing the main force, not a bearish trend

🔴 Danger line C (≈10%) | Structural damage → Deep insertion

Conditions are extremely harsh

  • Breaks 2920

  • Capital flow turns into accelerated outflow

  • OI synchronously declines

Target

  • 2850–2800 (1W liquidation pool)

Currently not satisfied.

Third layer | Execution layer (Key: points that can be acted upon)

Here is what you want: Long and short all given + limit positions + risk points
According to your usual method: Test 10% → Confirm again to add

✅ Long plan (main force priority)

⭐ Long A | Testing position (current optimal)

  • Entry: 3000–3020

  • Position: 10%

  • Risk point: 2950

  • Invalidation point: 2920

  • Limit position: 2850

  • Target: 3100 → 3180

  • Nature: Occupy position, not a pattern

👉 Plain language:
If you don't get on the bus now, wait for it to pull to 3100 and then chase, you will feel very uncomfortable.

⭐⭐ Long B | Extreme reversal (big meat position · PDM)

  • Entry: 2850–2800

  • Position: Gradually heavy position

  • Risk point: 2750

  • Invalidation point: 2700

  • Target: 3100 → 3300+

  • Nature: Structural level, can eat big meat

👉 This is an insurance position for 'just in case of a spike'

❌ Short plan (only for those who can survive)

⚠️ Short A | Retracement short (not recommended)

  • Entry: 3160–3180

  • Position: ≤10%

  • Risk point: 3220

  • Invalidation point: 3250

  • Target: 3050

  • Nature: Retracement speculation, not allowed to have a pattern

👉 Plain language:
Shorting now is betting on the main force's conscience, the win rate is not high.

The last core summary (what you really should remember)

  • The main force is not in a hurry to pull, but also does not want to crash

  • Upper liquidation > Lower liquidation

  • Best strategy: Light position long, waiting for confirmation

  • Real big meat only appears when forced liquidation starts or extreme spike occurs