【December 23rd Market Information and Data Analysis】

1、#特朗普 or in the first week of January next year appoint a new Federal Reserve chairman;

2、#比特币 perpetual contract open interest rises, traders bet on a year-end market rebound;

3、#贝莱德 will list Bitcoin alongside U.S. short-term Treasury bonds and seven major tech stocks as one of the core investment themes for 2025;

4、Institutions: In this risk-averse cycle, #黄金 has the upper hand, and Bitcoin is currently difficult to be included in official reserve assets on a large scale.

Latest data shows that gold prices have reached new highs multiple times in the past year, with a cumulative increase of about 60%, while Bitcoin has only risen about 30% during the same period. A decline in interest rates, a drop in inflation, and market expectations of the Federal Reserve turning dovish in 2026 have driven funds towards traditional safe-haven assets. Despite institutions like BlackRock continuously promoting Bitcoin as "digital gold," its high volatility, regulatory sensitivity, and political risks make it difficult to enter central bank official reserves, and gold remains the preferred reserve asset for central banks around the world.

In the derivatives market, #BTC briefly touched $90,000, and perpetual contract open interest rose from 304,000 to about 310,000, with the funding rate increasing from 0.04% to 0.09%. This indicates that bullish leveraged positions are regrouping, with traders expecting significant volatility by year-end. For the crypto market, rising funding rates and increasing positions mean that the balance of long and short forces may trend toward equilibrium in the short term; if Bitcoin prices continue to break through key resistance levels, it may attract more institutional funds; however, if the macro environment remains dominated by gold, the volatility and funding costs of BTC will limit any further price breakthroughs. Overall, gold's strong performance and the slight warming of derivative data have kept Bitcoin in a relatively passive market position in the short term.