The current price range is between 2970---3000 US dollars.

The 1-hour chart technical pattern shows the Bollinger Bands narrowing downwards, and the MACD death cross indicates that short-term momentum is relatively weak. At the same time, there is a slight rebound demand.

The key resistance above is the 3040 - 3066 US dollars area. Particularly at 3166 US dollars, if it breaks through, it may trigger a large-scale short liquidation (approximately 1.17 billion US dollars), thereby accelerating the rise.

The key support below is 2950 US dollars (psychological and trend key level). If it breaks down, it may test 2869 US dollars (intensive area for long liquidation) and around 2850.

Potential catalysts: The market liquidity contraction during the Christmas period may amplify two-way fluctuations.

Weak consolidation pattern: Prices are suppressed below 3040, and the Bollinger Bands on the 1-hour chart narrowing downwards and the MACD death cross pattern indicate that the bears hold a certain advantage in the short term, placing the market in a weak consolidation state. However, some oscillation indicators (such as KDJ, RSI) show the possibility of a bottom rebound, but this may merely be a technical pullback within a short term.

The key liquidation point becomes the focus: A highly concerning data point is that if the ETH price can successfully break through 3166 US dollars, major exchanges will face a short liquidation pressure of approximately 1.171 billion US dollars. This is like a "bomb"; once triggered, a large amount of forced buying may push the price higher in a short time. Therefore, this position is the key valve that determines whether short-term upward space can be opened.

Special market environment: Currently, as we approach the Christmas holiday, institutional observations indicate that market liquidity has significantly weakened. In a low liquidity environment, any slightly larger trade may trigger more intense price fluctuations than usual, making the market prone to "two-way squeeze" conditions. This makes any directional breakout or breakdown potentially amplified quickly.

What to focus on in operations:

In the current sensitive technical positions and special market environment, the following points can be emphasized:

Confirmation of upward breakout: Observe whether the price can effectively stabilize above the 3040-3066 area, accompanied by an increase in trading volume. The core signal is whether it can reach and break through the liquidation threshold at 3166 US dollars.

Risk of downward breakdown: Closely monitor the defense situation at the psychological level of 3000 US dollars. If the 1-hour candlestick closes below it, the short-term structure will weaken and may quickly test the support around 2869 US dollars.