币海趋势

$BTC Large pancake near 87700 to go long 87000 to add position 86400 to defend Target 88500---89500---90000

$ETH Ethereum near 2965 to go long 2920 to add position 2880 to defend Target 3010---3070

$SOL SOL near 123.5 to go long 120 to add position 118 stop loss Target 126.5---129

The current price range is between 2970---3000 US dollars.
The 1-hour chart technical pattern shows the Bollinger Bands narrowing downwards, and the MACD death cross indicates that short-term momentum is relatively weak. At the same time, there is a slight rebound demand.
The key resistance above is the 3040 - 3066 US dollars area. Particularly at 3166 US dollars, if it breaks through, it may trigger a large-scale short liquidation (approximately 1.17 billion US dollars), thereby accelerating the rise.
The key support below is 2950 US dollars (psychological and trend key level). If it breaks down, it may test 2869 US dollars (intensive area for long liquidation) and around 2850.
Potential catalysts: The market liquidity contraction during the Christmas period may amplify two-way fluctuations.

Weak consolidation pattern: Prices are suppressed below 3040, and the Bollinger Bands on the 1-hour chart narrowing downwards and the MACD death cross pattern indicate that the bears hold a certain advantage in the short term, placing the market in a weak consolidation state. However, some oscillation indicators (such as KDJ, RSI) show the possibility of a bottom rebound, but this may merely be a technical pullback within a short term.

The key liquidation point becomes the focus: A highly concerning data point is that if the ETH price can successfully break through 3166 US dollars, major exchanges will face a short liquidation pressure of approximately 1.171 billion US dollars. This is like a "bomb"; once triggered, a large amount of forced buying may push the price higher in a short time. Therefore, this position is the key valve that determines whether short-term upward space can be opened.

Special market environment: Currently, as we approach the Christmas holiday, institutional observations indicate that market liquidity has significantly weakened. In a low liquidity environment, any slightly larger trade may trigger more intense price fluctuations than usual, making the market prone to "two-way squeeze" conditions. This makes any directional breakout or breakdown potentially amplified quickly.

What to focus on in operations:
In the current sensitive technical positions and special market environment, the following points can be emphasized:
Confirmation of upward breakout: Observe whether the price can effectively stabilize above the 3040-3066 area, accompanied by an increase in trading volume. The core signal is whether it can reach and break through the liquidation threshold at 3166 US dollars.
Risk of downward breakdown: Closely monitor the defense situation at the psychological level of 3000 US dollars. If the 1-hour candlestick closes below it, the short-term structure will weaken and may quickly test the support around 2869 US dollars.

Last night, the mindset surged again, the big pie perfectly grasped ⬇️2000 points, Ethereum captured ⬇️100 points, and the brothers of Shizang doubled again. At the same time, congratulations to the friends who kept up with the rhythm in the square. For more real-time strategies, follow me.

Friends doing rolling warehouses:
The current price of Bitcoin is around 90100, you can enter a short position; add to your position around 91000; defend at 92000; the target is initially set at 89000---88000 【Reduce position and hold if it breaks】
The current price of Ethereum is around 3070, you can enter a short position; add to your position at 3110; defend at 3150; the target is 2970--2950--2900

In simple terms, Ethereum is currently a bit "stuck", and it's quite difficult for it to rise. As of the evening, the price is fluctuating between $2900 and $2935, and the overall feeling still seems to be dictated by the bears (sellers).
Current situation explained in layman's terms:
Awkward position: The price is now "under pressure above and supported below". $2930 seems like a ceiling; in recent rebounds, it has come down every time it hits this level. The psychological defense line is at $2900, and the real "safety cushion" is around $2775.
Weak momentum: From technical indicators, both MACD and RSI, the two "sentiment indicators", show that the market currently lacks momentum, and buying power is insufficient.
Trendline pressure: The price is being suppressed by a "downtrend line" formed by connecting several recent highs (around $2930); it will be hard to say it’s turning strong unless it stands above this line.
What might happen next?
A more likely bearish scenario: If the price keeps failing to break through the $2925-$2950 "ceiling" area and even breaks below $2900, it’s very likely to test the previous "floor price" of $2775 again. If it breaks this "floor", the speed of the decline might accelerate, and the next level could be around $2720 or even $2640.
A miraculous bullish scenario: Unless the bulls (buyers) can suddenly exert force, pulling the price up significantly with high trading volume to firmly stand above the trendline at $2925, the short-term downward pressure can only be alleviated, and there would be a chance to challenge $2950 or even $3000. However, given the current situation, this seems quite challenging.
To summarize:
Currently, the bears are dominant; the key is whether the $2925 level can be effectively broken. For those trading, just keep an eye on the tug-of-war at this level.
Note: The market changes very quickly, and the above is just a simplified interpretation based on the chart situation on the evening of December 19, and it does not constitute any investment advice. Trading should always be based on your own situation, and remember to set stop-losses.
I hope this explanation is clearer. If you want to understand more long-term trends (like 4 hours or a day), I can also help you look into that.

Technical analysis view on SOL:
Key price level resistance: Pay attention to $146.91, which is a key level that bulls need to break through. Next is the $150-$155 range.
Support level: $123.11 is the recent key support, with stronger support at $121.66.
Technical indicator signals MACD: A bullish divergence has appeared, and the histogram shows that upward momentum is building.
RSI: It is in a neutral area (around 43-44), not entering overbought or oversold.
Bollinger Bands: Prices are running between the middle and lower bands, indicating that prices are relatively low compared to their moving average.
Volume and market sentiment: The volume has exceeded $400 million, considered a favorable level for supporting the continuous movement of prices. There is a view that when the trading volume exceeds $250 million, the continuity of subsequent trends may be stronger.

$BTC pancake current price long position entry defend line 85000 target 87000--87500
$ETH Ethereum current price long position entry defend line 2900 target 3000---3040

Long position near pancake 92600 Defense at 91800 Target 94000---94500
Long position near Ether 3320 Defense at 3290 Target 3380---34200$BTC $ETH