Recently, I saw a widely circulated prediction in the crypto space: by 2026, cryptocurrencies could officially enter the 'Too Big to Fail' club, standing shoulder to shoulder with Wall Street giants like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. This is not baseless speculation; it is a logic derived from the pro-crypto policies of the Trump administration and market size projections.

From 'Fringe Player' to 'System Crucial': A Major Policy Shift
During the 2022 FTX collapse, the Biden administration drew a clear line, deeming cryptocurrency a 'high-risk island.' Now, with Trump back in power, his family business has deeply engaged in the crypto space, with a total market value increasing by $1.2 trillion in a year (according to CoinGecko). Bitcoin and Ethereum are reaching new highs repeatedly. He is promoting stablecoin legislation, and mainstream banks have been authorized to custody crypto assets. If another FTX-like collapse occurs, the White House will find it hard to sit idle—turbulence in stablecoins could affect the liquidity of U.S. Treasuries, and if your daily traded USDT decouples, the market will be thrown into chaos.

Two Major Triggers: Stablecoin Run or Exchange Defaults

  • USDT Risk: A scale of 180 billion dollars, with reserves in US Treasury bonds, 5% Bitcoin, 7% precious metals, but an equity buffer of only 7 billion dollars. A 4% drop in assets could lead to a break. The brief drop of USDC below 1 dollar due to the Silicon Valley Bank incident in 2023 serves as a cautionary tale. Once a bank run occurs, Tether will sell US Treasury bonds, and cryptocurrency trading pairs (mostly priced in USDT) will freeze, causing global financial tremors. Tether also has ties to Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald, with deeper insider connections.

  • Exchange Crisis: Binance and four other exchanges account for 71% of spot trading (CoinGecko). The custody + financing model easily leads to conflicts of interest, and hackers or loan defaults could cause 'catastrophic' shocks (ESRB report). Think about it, what if all your coins are on one platform? What then?

How to operate the rescue? The government toolbox is fully equipped.
Depends on the issue:

  • Stablecoin Liquidity Panic: Mimicking the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank crisis, using the Treasury's foreign exchange stabilization fund (no congressional approval required) to provide collateralized loans has been used to help Argentina.

  • Chain Reaction of Exchange Failures: Moving 'strategic Bitcoin reserves' (200,000 BTC worth 18 billion dollars, data from White House advisor Sacks), to support the market, even selling gold to buy coins. After banks entered the crypto space, risks have crossed into traditional finance.
    Political Confidence: According to a Gallup survey, 1 in 7 Americans holds cryptocurrency; donations from crypto companies account for 44% of the election cycle (Public Citizen). With midterm elections approaching, the bull market turns bear, and the Trump family's profits and voter sentiment cannot withstand it.

The 'Destiny Reversal' of Bitcoin
Born from the anger of the 2008 crisis over bank bailouts, seeking to join the same club 18 years later. In the short term, policy benefits may push prices up; in the long term, systemic risks are amplified—there are over ten million holders of cryptocurrency, and ordinary people must be wary of the 'too big' double-edged sword. Think more about diversification and regulatory signals in your asset allocation.

Is this narrative ironic enough? Cryptocurrency has transitioned from rebellion to mainstream, with opportunities and risks coexisting. How do you plan your layout? Share in the comments.

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