Bitcoin 'whale' Strategy pauses buying, hoarding $2.2 billion in cash for winter? Signals of a harsh winter are full

Recently, I came across the latest actions of Bitcoin 'whale' Strategy (MSTR). This big holder has halted purchases and piled up $2.2 billion in cash, as if preparing for the 'winter' with provisions. Bitcoin has dropped 30% from the high of $126,000 on October 12, and the stock price has halved. Let's analyze the signals behind this with data and market signals, which will also help adjust positions by the end of the year, providing some clarity.

The logic of Strategy's 'cash for winter': Preventing margin calls + Paying interest

In one week, they sold stocks to cash out $748 million, with a total Bitcoin holding value of $60 billion. They previously set aside $1.4 billion in reserves to cover annual interest payments of $824 million (TD Cowen data, software cash flow is insufficient). The mNAV is only 1.1, and the market is worried about a negative premium. Simply put, it's like you have a mortgage on a property; when prices drop, you save cash to prevent default — they sense the winter and wisely stop.

MSCI 'delisting' alarm: Risk of passive fund outflows between $2.8 billion and $8.8 billion

MSCI is seeking opinions on excluding companies holding over 50% of their assets in cryptocurrency (feedback by 12/31, decision on 1/15). Strategy is part of the Nasdaq 100 and MSCI global components. Morgan's November report estimates passive ETF funds at $9 billion, with a potential outflow of $2.8 billion if excluded, and other indices could follow with a total of $8.8 billion. If your fund or index includes MSTR, be aware of the selling pressure.

Market overall is weak: ETF outflows + bearish options

Trading is sluggish, ETF funds are retreating, and derivatives lack rebound bets. This Friday, $23 billion in options expire, with a 30-day volatility of 45% and skew of -5% (Forster data). Downside protection far exceeds upside, and traders are preparing for Q1/Q2 2026. This is the fourth annual decline historically, and it’s rare without a scandal driving it.

Fidelity's Timmer perspective: Cycle peak has appeared, support at $65,000 - $75,000

He believes the current halving rally has ended, and 2026 will be a 'year of adjustment' like a historical winter (about 1 year), but he remains bullish in the long term. In the short term, there will be significant fluctuations; holders should set stop-losses and diversify; in the long run, the halving logic remains, so be patient and wait for the bottom.

Strategy's pause is like a weather vane, the first 'pure bear' test of faith for Bitcoin. Be cautious in the short term, but don’t panic in the long run — how is your current position? Feel free to comment and share.

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