This recent market trend has really been tormenting me! I was originally watching BTC, hoping to buy in during a pullback, but each time I was just a little short of getting in, and the price kept pulling back, breaking through 90,000. Unfortunately, it couldn't hold. If I had managed to enter earlier, my target would have been achieved, but there's no way around it; I need to adjust my thinking quickly!
Mainstream coin strategy is undergoing a major adjustment: do not chase highs, just wait for low positions to buy.
First, let's talk about BTC. It is still in the pullback stage, but after hitting the 90,000 resistance line on a smaller scale, it quickly fell back and dropped back into the fluctuation range. Looking at the 4-hour chart, it's obvious that a correction is needed—not only has it formed a rising wedge shape, but it has also experienced a dead cross at a high position. Once it breaks below 87,000, it is highly likely to test the support level at 85,000.
So now, shorting doesn't have a good cost-performance ratio. I'm planning to wait for a pullback, placing buy orders around 8.5. For now, this is my thought process; I'll update everyone if there are any changes.
Looking at ETH again, it previously broke through 3000 but didn't hold, quickly falling back. Now it has dropped to the lower support level of the consolidation range, around 2950. The current trend is still weak, continually declining, and this position is unlikely to hold. If it breaks, it might drop to 2850, which happens to be the 0.382 retracement level, a standard position for a small-scale second bottom. I plan to wait to enter around 2850; no rush, just patiently wait.
Honestly, the most crucial thing right now is to be patient and wait for the right position. Messing around when the cost-performance ratio is low can easily lead to stop losses, which isn't worth it. Plus, I entered at the lowest point during the pullback and made a good profit, but now I'm looking for stability, fearing profit retracement. I'd rather not get in than take risks; of course, if a big trend emerges, I'll adjust my judgment immediately—after all, 'when it doesn't move, it surprises people when it does!'
Comments on various coins: Some hold steady, some buy the dip, and some shouldn't be touched.
- $PIPPIN: I must praise it! It precisely hit the $0.26 target, and this isn't luck; it's the result of respecting trends and understanding charts. When everyone was chasing the rise, I waited for a pullback; when others were panic-selling, I remained steady as a mountain. Next time I recommend a token, will you still doubt it?
- $SOL: The support level is still between 121.2-120. Keep an eye on whether the price will drop here to absorb liquidity. The pressure level at 131 is crucial; it must stabilize again to see a decent upward trend.
- $AAVE: Although there are serious internal conflicts within the team, from a fundamental perspective, it is still a top DeFi lending project. A drop could actually be an opportunity; I plan to wait for a further drop to buy the dip, as it is unlikely to get buried.
- $ASTER: The short-term decline should be coming to an end; technically oversold, and the selling pressure from funds has weakened. It is highly likely to see a rebound. However, let me say this upfront, this is essentially a garbage project—there are only a few hundred daily active users on-chain, yet it has a market cap of several billion, which is completely unreasonable! The Perpdex track already has HYPE as the absolute leader, and ASTER has been imitating since inception, lacking any innovation. After a short-term rebound, it will still fall, so don't be greedy.
- $LIQUID: This coin is quite interesting; it automatically adds LP. Brothers interested in such innovative mechanisms can pay more attention.
- $TRU: The overall trend is bearish; daily FVG will play a resistance role, and liquidity below PWL may be cleared later. After the surge in volume, the rebound strength is weak; the strategy is bearish, selling on the rebound, with a target of downward liquidity. Specific parameters: enter at 0.0087, stop loss at 0.0105, take profit first at 0.0078, then at 0.0060.
- #ZEC: Since the end of November, it has been moving within a triangular macro structure. All trend lines have not been broken, and it is highly likely to continue maintaining this structure. The $400 range is the most likely rebound target, and the price may slightly dip below this position to scare traders, but there are already a large number of buy orders around $300. Only if the price breaks below this structure will the trend potentially reverse.
A painful lesson! I got stuck twice playing with meme coins and finally recognized reality.
Lastly, I must complain about my miserable experience playing with meme coins—the hardest part of playing with meme coins is patience. Clearly, I had a strategy ready, but I just couldn't control my hands!
In the past few days, I've been emphasizing to my friends: either don't play with meme coins, or if you do, stick to old community coins, don't touch new coins. Yet, I couldn't hold back myself, and I bought the dips on #RocketDog and $UDOG twice, and now I'm stuck in losses!
Now that I've personally tested it, I've confirmed a principle: BSC currently has no secondary market! No matter who is promoting or how hot it is, the market in this trend is just a one-way flow, the difference lies only in how fast it falls.
On the contrary, the old community coin I previously bet on, #Success, is stable and has even reached the high point of the range.
Alright, no more messing around, just holding onto the old coins I have. In a bear market, preserving capital is already a gain; keeping some bullets for future opportunities, why worry about not having a chance to enter later?
