Senior analysts reveal the truth behind it.
The pies and traps of the crypto market are often just a line apart.
"I bought some Aster with my own money; I just buy and hold." This simple statement from Binance founder Zhao Changpeng (CZ) instantly ignited the entire crypto community.
Within minutes, the ASTER price surged over 30%, and trading volume exploded. But behind this excitement, I discovered a more complex plot: massive token transfers, data platform delistings, and airdrop delays. This show is far more exciting than it appears.
As a crypto analyst who has experienced multiple bull and bear markets, today I want to help everyone see the truth behind this wave of operations.
What exactly happened? A meticulously planned 'pie'?
The story begins in early October 2025. At that time, the price of ASTER experienced a halving, plummeting from a high of $2.30 to $1.10. The market was in panic, and retail investors were selling off.
But at this moment, the wallet related to Galaxy Digital quietly accumulated as much as 118,250,000 ASTER, worth about $270 million. This is not ordinary retail behavior but a typical 'whale' operation.
Subsequently, CZ publicly announced a personal investment of $2 million to purchase ASTER, triggering a rapid price rebound. On the surface, this seems like good news, but combined with prior whale accumulation, this scene reminds me of the classic strategy of 'buy the rumor, sell the news.'
What exactly is ASTER? Why has it attracted so much attention?
Before we dive deeper into the analysis, let's understand ASTER itself. It is a decentralized perpetual contract exchange built on the BNB chain, aiming to make leveraged trading faster and more transparent.
Unlike ordinary DEXs, ASTER offers various trading modes: from simple one-click execution to professional order book trading, catering to different user needs. More importantly, it allows users to use yield-generating assets as collateral, meaning you can earn passive income while trading.
To be honest, from a technical perspective, ASTER does have innovations. But the problem is that in the crypto world, good technology does not necessarily equal a good investment.
The truth behind the data: Why do I say ASTER is 'lying flat'?
Now let's get to the point. Based on the on-chain data I analyzed, ASTER has shown several warning signals after a brief surge caused by CZ:
1. Continuous outflow of funds: Coinglass data shows that around October 5, the net outflow amount of ASTER reached $1.73 million, with three consecutive days of outflow. This indicates that early holders are taking profits.
2. Key support level under test: Technical analysis shows that the price of ASTER is seeking support around $1.86-$1.90. If it falls below this level, it may further drop to $1.70 or even lower.
3. Uncertainty brought by airdrop delays: The second phase airdrop originally scheduled for October 14 has been postponed to October 20, causing market concerns over allocation data uncertainty. In the crypto market, delays are often not a good sign.
What worries me the most is that DeFiLlama delisted ASTER, suspending its trading volume data. As an industry-recognized authority on data, this move by DeFiLlama undoubtedly raises questions about ASTER's transparency.
My exclusive analysis: Why you shouldn't easily become 'cannon fodder'?
Based on my years of market experience, ASTER currently faces several key issues:
Token economics challenges: ASTER has a total supply of up to 8 billion tokens, but the initial circulating supply only accounts for 20%. This means that a large number of tokens will gradually be unlocked into the market, potentially creating continuous selling pressure.
Intensifying competition: The perpetual DEX track is fiercely competitive, with competitors like Hyperliquid already having a first-mover advantage. ASTER needs to achieve technological breakthroughs and user growth to stand out.
Market sentiment differentiation: ASTER entered 'Phase Three' on October 7 and adopted a non-vested unlocking mechanism, leading to diverging opinions among traders. When market sentiment is differentiated, prices often experience significant fluctuations.
More importantly, while CZ's support is certainly important, it does not mean zero risk. He himself has clearly stated, "I am not a trader; I just buy and hold." This long-term perspective is fundamentally different from the short-term speculation of ordinary retail investors.
How should ordinary investors respond? My advice.
In the face of this complex situation, I have some practical advice for everyone:
1. Position management is key: If you decide to participate, ensure that ASTER only accounts for a small portion of your portfolio. My personal rule of thumb is to invest no more than 5% of total funds in a single altcoin.
2. Pay attention to key technical levels: Closely monitor the support level at $1.86 and the resistance level at $2.00. A breakthrough above $2.00 could open up upward space, while falling below $1.86 may trigger further corrections.
3. Don't be blinded by celebrity effects: Even with endorsements from industry leaders like CZ, you should independently research the project's fundamentals. Remember, in the crypto market, no one is responsible for your losses.
4. Long-term perspective: If you agree with ASTER's long-term vision, consider a dollar-cost averaging strategy rather than a one-time heavy investment. This can reduce the risk of timing the market.
Future outlook: Can ASTER create miracles?
Based on existing data, I propose three possible scenarios for ASTER's prospects in 2025:
Pessimistic scenario: If the overall market corrects or token unlocking brings significant selling pressure, ASTER may fall back to the range of $0.80-$1.00.
Neutral scenario: If the ecosystem expands steadily and trading activity remains active, ASTER may trade in the range of $1.50-$2.20.
Optimistic scenario: In a favorable macro environment and widespread application of Aster chain products, ASTER is expected to break through $3.
From my personal perspective, the likelihood of a neutral scenario is relatively high. ASTER has potential but needs to overcome several challenges.
Conclusion: The survival wisdom of the crypto market.
In the crypto world, the 'free lunch' often hides a higher price. The story of ASTER is far from over, but it has already given us a vivid lesson in risk education.
Remember, the market always has both the brutal '50% crash' and the festive '10% daily rise'. As rational investors, what we need to do is stay calm amidst the frenzy and find opportunities in fear.
If you like this analysis and want to learn more insights into the crypto market, feel free to follow @崎哥说币 #加密市场观察 $BTC .
