As the year-end approaches, the trading activity in the precious metals market continues to rise, with international gold prices strongly breaking through the 4400 USD/ounce mark, and silver prices simultaneously climbing to around 70 USD/ounce, both expected to achieve their best annual performance in decades. Looking at the overall trend for 2025, gold is undoubtedly one of the most watched asset classes in the global capital markets.

The core issue currently attracting the most attention in the market is: can this upward trend continue into next year? Let's review the assessments and outlooks from major mainstream institutions together.

1. Core logic analysis: Will the four major supporting factors continue in 2026?

This round of rising gold prices is not driven by short-term emotions, but is based on the following four fundamental supports:

1. Global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings: Driven by the evolution of geopolitical patterns and foreign exchange reserve diversification strategies, demand for gold purchases by central banks remains strong, providing long-term support for gold prices.

2. ETF funds are flowing back in: As the market re-recognizes the asset allocation value of gold, gold ETFs have ended the previous outflow trend and regained favor from investors.

3. The interest rate environment tends to be accommodative: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is shifting toward a rate-cutting cycle, and the significant decline in real interest rates has greatly reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold.

4. The dollar is relatively weak: The dollar credit system faces structural challenges, combined with expectations of a weakening exchange rate, further highlighting the asset allocation value of gold.

Currently, market consensus believes that the aforementioned supporting factors will continue to play a role in 2026, and the core logic for gold's medium to long-term positivity has not fundamentally changed.

Two, summary of institutional views: Consistent expectations for target prices and differences in paths.

Although bullish sentiment remains the mainstream view in the market, different institutions have varying assessments of the upward space and pace:

Summary of major institutions' forecasts:

• JPMorgan Chase: Targeting $5055/ounce (average price in the fourth quarter of 2026), with potential adjustments in allocation structure possibly pushing it up to $6000.

• Goldman Sachs: Benchmark target $4900/ounce (by the end of 2026), with potential for upward movement.

• Morgan Stanley: Expecting $4800/ounce (in the fourth quarter of 2026), but the increase is narrower compared to 2025.

• State Street Global Advisors: Trading range of $4000-$4500, may test $5000 under emotional drive.

• TD Securities: Targeting $4400/ounce (in the first half of 2026)

• UBS Group: Target $4500/ounce (before June 2026)

• World Gold Council: An expected increase of 5%-15% remains.

• Other views: Some long-term perspectives believe that gold prices have the potential to break through higher ranges, but require more fundamental support.

Three, risk warnings: Lessons from historical experiences.

In optimistic expectations, a rational understanding needs to be maintained. Some analyses point out that the current market situation easily evokes memories of certain historical phases of significant volatility—after experiencing a rapid rise in gold prices, a longer period of consolidation and digestion is often required.

This perspective suggests that although capital flows may still drive prices upward, investors need to be wary of significant increases in market volatility. This means that the gold market in 2026 may exhibit a complex characteristic of 'pullbacks during rises and opportunities during fluctuations.'

Four, comprehensive assessment: Trend grasping and strategic thinking.

Based on the above analysis, we can form the following three key insights:

1. Trend direction unchanged: The core logic of central bank gold purchases, reserve diversification, and interest rate environment remains effective in 2026.

2. Valuation levels are high: Current gold prices are at historically high ranges, and the pressure for technical adjustments may increase as the price rises.

3. Operational strategy suggestion: Adopt a combination of trend tracking and swing trading. Holders can continue to hold but should adjust positions appropriately, while new investors should patiently wait for a more cost-effective entry opportunity.

Overall, the gold market in 2026 is expected to seek a new balance between fundamental support and valuation pressure, with trends potentially becoming more complex and variable. Investors are advised to maintain rational analysis and manage positions well to respond flexibly to possible market changes.