The wisdom of asset allocation lies not in chasing the popular, but in understanding the cycles.
"In 2018, an aunt in Shanghai made a bold decision - to sell her property worth 8.5 million and convert it all into gold." At that time, this seemed like a crazy act, but seven years later, it proved to be a perfect turnaround in asset allocation.
At that time, the real estate market was at its peak, and the aunt decisively cashed out 8.5 million, buying 27 kilograms of gold at about 270 yuan per gram. Seven years later, her old house's value shrank to 6.5 million, while the gold price broke through the 800 yuan per gram mark.
In 2025, she sold 8 kilograms of gold at a price of 830 yuan per gram, earning 6.64 million yuan, easily buying back her house and completing renovations, while still holding 19 kilograms of gold. This operation not only allowed her to regain her original property but also left her with a substantial amount of gold assets.
01 Contrarian Thinking Grasping Buying and Selling Opportunities
Looking back, this aunt's success is by no means accidental. In 2018, China's real estate market was at a historical high point after the '317 new policy,' while gold prices were at a near five-year low.
At that time, the market atmosphere was 'everyone buying houses,' but she dared to go against the tide when everyone was fervent. This contrarian thinking is incredibly valuable in investing, but executing it is counterintuitive.
Being able to not hold real estate for more than five years and to resist the so-called 'shell-less feeling' requires immense psychological resilience. Reports suggest that this aunt may have mitigated the impact of market fluctuations on her mindset through geographical isolation, avoiding being immersed in the volatility of Beijing's real estate market.
She grasped the turning point of China's real estate market from the 'general price increase era' to the policy of 'housing for living, not for speculation,' while also seizing the financial turning point of gold from the 'strong dollar cycle' to 'global monetary easing.' This sensitivity to dual-cycle inflection points is precisely what distinguishes investment experts from ordinary people.
02 Gold and Real Estate's Different Attributes
Gold, as an asset with 'no sovereign credit risk,' has its value closely tied to geopolitical stability and the stability of the monetary credit system. During periods of economic uncertainty, the safe-haven attributes of gold become prominent.
Since 2025, international geopolitical 'black swan' events have frequently occurred, and global risk aversion sentiment has significantly increased, which is an important reason for gold prices breaking through historical highs.
In contrast, real estate possesses the dual attributes of 'physical value + cash flow.' Properties in core urban areas have long-term value retention capabilities due to population inflow and resource scarcity, and rental income can provide continuous cash flow.
The shortcomings of real estate investment are also very obvious: poor liquidity, high transaction costs, and significant influence from regional supply and demand and policy regulation. The new logic of the real estate market in 2025 is clear—'the era of blindly buying houses to make money is over,' and only properties in core locations of cities with net population inflows have anti-decline capacity.
03 Asset Rotation is a Skill That Can Be Mastered
This Shanghai aunt's operations actually align with the classic 'Merrill Lynch Clock' asset rotation theory. This theory divides the economic cycle into four stages: recovery, overheating, stagflation, and recession, with each stage having the best-performing asset classes.
During the recession stage, bonds perform best; during the recovery stage, stocks are the optimal choice; during the overheating stage, commodities (such as gold) lead; while in the stagflation stage, cash is king.
The economic environment after 2018 has indeed experienced a process of moving from a recession-like state to gradual recovery, with gold performing prominently as a safe-haven asset and commodity during specific stages.
However, this asset rotation requires investors to have a basic judgment of the economic cycle, rather than blindly following trends. Ordinary investors can refer to the 'one-third allocation' asset allocation concept: allocate 1/3 of assets to gold to hedge risks, 1/3 to US dollar bonds for liquidity, and 1/3 to core real estate to bet on the future.
For investors with lower risk tolerance, it is advisable to allocate 10%-20% of assets to gold and use tools like ETFs to reduce the cost of physical holdings.
04 Feasible Strategies for Ordinary Investors
Extreme operations carry huge risks, and ordinary people should not blindly imitate them. This year, in early April, a small businesswoman in Shenzhen chased the rising gold prices and took out a loan to purchase about 800,000 yuan worth of accumulated gold. As gold began to decline on April 7, she lost over 30,000 yuan in just a few days and had to choose to cut half of her position to stop the loss at a low point.
Asset allocation should adhere to the principle of 'not putting all eggs in one basket.' Diversifying investments is the best way for ordinary investors to avoid risks.
For investors with self-use needs, it is advisable to purchase properties in core urban areas. At the same time, allocate part of the assets to gold-related investments, such as gold ETFs or physical gold bars, to achieve risk diversification.
Investors should also note that gold is at a historical high, and technical indicators show that gold has entered an 'extremely bullish' zone, with the RSI indicator being overbought, suggesting short-term profit-taking pressure.
This means that simply repeating the operations of the Shanghai aunt may face the risk of high-level buying.
Take a look at the investor from that similar case in Beijing—six years ago, he sold a property worth 10 million yuan to buy 38 kilograms of gold, and last year sold it at 646 yuan/gram, then used 8 million yuan to buy back his original property, leaving him with 16 million yuan in cash. Those who sold gold to buy properties in 2021 now face a 'double loss' situation as property values have depreciated to 900,000 yuan while missing out on the rising gold market.
The rhythm of future asset rotation may change. As the global economy enters a new phase, emerging asset classes such as artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies may become the next targets for rotation. However, the core principles remain unchanged: maintain rationality when prices deviate from value and dare to think contrarily when everyone is fervent.
The true wisdom of asset allocation does not lie in accurately predicting the short-term trends of a particular asset class, but in grasping cycles, diversifying risks, and long-term layout. Follow me to learn more first-hand information and knowledge about the cryptocurrency circle, and become your navigator in the crypto space; learning is your greatest wealth!#ETH走势分析 $ETH
