Market Logic and Outlook: Hawkish Expectations Suppressed, Awaiting GDP Guidance

The current cryptocurrency market is under pressure, primarily due to the Federal Reserve clearly signaling a "maintaining high interest rates for longer" stance, which extinguishes short-term rate cut expectations and leads funds to flow into traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. Tonight's U.S. GDP data will be key in determining the short-term direction.

1. Core Pressure: The Federal Reserve's Hawkish Tone

Cleveland Fed President has clearly stated that there will be no rate cuts before spring, and believes recent inflation data may be underestimated. This strong hawkish stance has become the dominant voice in the market, directly weakening liquidity easing expectations, putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

2. Tonight's Key: GDP Data Determines Direction

The market is focused on the U.S. third-quarter GDP data to be released at 21:30 Beijing time.

· If the data is strong (>3.5%): This will strengthen the Federal Reserve's justification for maintaining high interest rates, with Bitcoin potentially testing $87,000 and Ethereum testing $2,980.

· If the data is weak (<2.5%): This may reignite rate cut expectations, driving a rebound, with Bitcoin looking at $88,500-$90,000 and Ethereum targeting $3,010.

3. Safe-Haven Flow: Divergence in Gold and Silver

In uncertainty, safe-haven funds are flowing into precious metals, but the logic is different:

· Gold: Hits a historical high, driven by long-term factors such as central bank purchases and safe-haven demand.

· Silver: Rises even more sharply due to its financial properties and strong industrial demand driven by photovoltaics, AI, etc., becoming the "next-generation metal."

Summary: The market is currently in a game of policy expectations and data validation, and volatility may intensify. In addition to GDP, subsequent inflation and employment data will continue to affect the Federal Reserve's policy path and asset prices.

Note: The above analysis is based on publicly available market information and does not constitute investment advice. Market volatility is severe; please make cautious decisions and pay attention to risk management. #美联储回购协议计划